The United Nations has noted with concern that the fertility rate — the average number of children born per woman — is dipping irreversibly. In 124 countries, this level has gone below the replacement rate of 2.1. Significantly, both India and China — together they account for more than a third of the world’s population — are among them.

In 2023, the global birth rate is 17.46 per thousand, marking a 1.15% decline from 2022. The slowdown process, The Economist notes, will set in all over the world by 2040. But the causes, extent and consequences of demographic convergence and transition that negate the Malthusian nightmare of a famine-stricken, overpopulated world have neither been fully understood nor adequately explained.

How and why are India’s birth rate falling in the absence of a stringent population control policy?

A survey I conducted recently among educated, working women across cities revealed some emerging social trends. More than 60% of the women respondents have the family’s support to raise a child, 43.3% depend on their in-laws for this purpose, while a significant 24% have no one to look after the infant. The rise of female literacy has led to a talent pool joining the workforce, particularly in those segments where women are preferred. Career consciousness, a good pay package, along with recognition at work stressing individuality and independence have resulted in child-rearing not always being their first option. Almost half of the respondents (51.1%) concede to the baby being a hindrance to career pursuits. While 42.9% say staying single might help in pursuing a career, for 28.6% the response is an unhesitant “definitely yes”. Another 28.6%, however, do not see maternity as a roadblock: they look at adoption as an answer to their predicament.

There are other contributing factors. Crèche facilities are either non-existent or extremely inadequate. Only 6% of the respondents say they have this facility at their workplace. A more serious problem for working women is the employers’ reluctance to sanction leave for their partners. As many as 38% of the respondents say the child’s father is not granted any paternity leave. For another 50%, it’s just two weeks. A minuscule 4% get a month off. Be it the public sector or elite private organisations, most employers find ways of retrenching women workers instead of paying them for the maternity period. Paid childcare is confined to the privileged: only 14.9% of the respondents could afford to access it. At the same time, families loathe doing without the economic advantage of the women working. So the baby can be deferred — or even denied.

This trend, strong in urban areas, is gaining momentum in the rural interior as well. The 15 largest countries in terms of GDP have a below-replacement fertility rate. Africa, the most underdeveloped continent containing over 70% of the world’s least developed countries, continues to have a high population growth rate for the same reason. Economic, social, technological and demographic factors have pushed India into a vortex of change. In 1970, India’s GDP growth rate slumbered at 5.16% and its population registered a substantially high growth of 2.23%. Half a century later, the GDP grew at 7.8% in 2023 while the population growth rate marked a record low of 0.81%.

The economic-demographic linkages are unambiguously visible. Now look at another crucial factor in the slowdown — infotainment. Computers, mobile telephony, internet, 24-hour satellite television, WhatsApp… technology has pervaded our lives comprehensively in the past 30 years than in the previous three centuries. A 10-hour power-cut in New York on November 9, 1965 reputedly triggered a baby boom. India has indubitably left the blackout night way behind. With poverty alleviation initiatives along with effective immunisation programmes and enhanced healthcare, which has drastically brought down the infant mortality rate, the need for more children has diminished.

The working woman has two choices: quit to raise a child or say no to babymaking. She has opted for the latter.

Manimala Roy is an economist working on gender and migration