If the Lok Sabha elections outcomes held some surprises, the assembly elections in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh threw up dramatic results. Both were to the advantage of the Bharatiya Janata Party. In Odisha, it swept the state away from the over 23-year reign of Naveen Patnaik and his Biju Janata Dal, while in Andhra Pradesh, the Telugu Desam Party headed by N. Chandrababu Naidu, an ally in the National Democratic Alliance, returned with flags flying, demolishing the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party of Y.S. Jagan Mohan Reddy. Both were double blows because the Lok Sabha showings were similar. Mr Patnaik’s popularity and deft management had kept anti-incumbency at bay so far. This time, his obviously fragile health and his growing dependence on V.K. Pandian, a former Tamil bureaucrat, was causing ripples even before the elections. Narendra Modi focused on this in his electoral campaign; he claimed that Mr Patnaik’s political successor would import Tamil control in state politics and appealed to Odia asmita. This strategy seemed to have been the crucial nail in the anti-incumbency coffin; mismanagement in the Jagannath temple, migration, corruption and so on were additional issues. The promise of 3.5 lakh jobs together with Rs 50,000 for all women and high paddy procurement prices for farmers could not have gone astray either.

The YSRCP government’s defeat in Andhra Pradesh was a different manifestation of anti-incumbency. Mr Naidu had rejoined the NDA sometime back. But the election results were his triumph alone. His imprisonment in 2023 because of an alleged scandal attracted strong sympathy. The state was used to a high standard of development under Mr Naidu, and to industry-based prosperity. Mr Reddy may have focused on education and health, but the people’s priorities were jobs, roads and other infrastructure. Bringing in industry was not Mr Reddy’s strong point either. Strategy is Mr Naidu’s strength; the TDP fielded new faces in key seats and won, while his promises included free bus rides for women, taps in every household in a water-scarce state, funds for women and schoolchildren, unemployment allowance and jobs. Mr Naidu has also returned to his former eminence as king-maker in national politics, because the BJP will have to depend greatly on the TDP for its dominance at the Centre. Keeping Mr Naidu as an ally will now be the BJP’s headache.