Few leaders have dominated the global landscape as prominently as Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan. On Sunday, Mr Erdogan, who served as his country’s prime minister from 2003 to 2014 and has been president since then, demonstrated just how strong his grip on Turkey remains, securing more than 49% of the votes in the first round of presidential elections. Just short of the majority mark, he will now head into a May 28 run-off against Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the candidate of Opposition parties looking to unseat Mr Erdogan, who secured nearly 45% of the votes. Mr Erdogan, who had been expected to trail Mr Kilicdaroglu, appears to hold the advantage in the run-off, with the conservative third candidate, Sinan Ogan, unlikely to be able to endorse either candidate fully. For a country that is only starting to recover from devastating earthquakes, the outcome of the election will not only offer clues to the public mood but could also help set the tone for Turkey’s future.
The election result will echo far beyond Turkey’s borders. Under Mr Erdogan, Turkey has assumed a major global profile as a nation that wields influence in regional and international disputes. He has locked horns with the United States of America and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, of which Turkey is a member, forging a foreign policy independent of, and at times at cross-purposes with, Washington’s interests. Mr Erdogan was able to stitch together a deal between Russia and Ukraine for the vital export of grains when no other nation was able to serve as a mediator. In Syria, where Turkish interests clash with those of the US and Russia, he has been willing to take both on. He has also held up Sweden’s ascension to NATO. At the same time, he has pitched himself as a leader of the Muslim world, from the Caucasus to Kashmir, where he has criticised India’s policies. While many in Western capitals and New Delhi might be happy if he were to lose in the run-off, the resulting vacuum would not be easy to fill. If Mr Erdogan overcomes his toughest challenge to return to power, his clout within and outside Turkey will only grow.
