Karnataka voted yesterday. The results are expected to be declared on May 13. There is a line of thought that argues that Karnataka, along with the other states that go to the polls this year, would be a reliable bellwether of the national mood before the general elections in 2024. The reality, however, may not be that simple. Before the parliamentary elections of 2019, the Congress had snatched Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan from the Bharatiya Janata Party, raising the prospects of a tighter parliamentary contest. But the BJP juggernaut romped home in the Lok Sabha polls. Similarly, electoral contests need not always be uncomplicated tussles among political parties. This is because conflicting visions also serve as the proverbial gladiators in the arena. Karnataka witnessed such a subterranean contest between two conflicting visions. The BJP, which found itself on the backfoot on account of public disaffection with allegedly endemic corruption, attempted to rely on polarisation. Several statements attributed to BJP leaders toed the majoritarian line. The Congress, meanwhile, concentrated on demands related to public welfare.
It appears that this line — religious mobilisation pitted against livelihood issues — is likely to hold in several electoral contests in the near future. The Congress would be hoping that its vision of welfarism fetches the requisite political dividends. This is because in the last nine years, India’s Opposition, including the Congress, has not been able to offer an alternative pivot to Narendra Modi’s relentless and perversely successful weaponisation of faith. If Karnataka chooses the principle of greater good over bigotry, it could spur the Congress and other anti-BJP forces to explore the possibility of transforming bread and butter issues — they vary from one state to the other — into a form of potent political capital. The BJP could find itself in an additional spot of bother while countering this thrust from its opponents. Its tallest leader, Mr Modi, has been trying to dismiss, indeed demonise, welfare initiatives such as subsidies as a kind of decadence. The party’s other claim — its supposed allergy to corruption — has also been exposed in Karnataka. It would be interesting to see if the BJP falls back on honing its divisive electoral agenda further if it were to lose Karnataka. If it does, the strain on India’s social fabric would intensify. The Opposition must be ready for an antidote. Could that be a more committed pledge of sab ka saath sab ka vikas?