Long-held traditional wisdom in politics suggests that foreign policy plays an insignificant role in influencing voters when compared to domestic issues. However, as the United States of America hurtles towards its presidential election with little separating the two contestants, the former president, Donald Trump, and the vice-president, Kamala Harris, in the opinion polls, that mantra is being tested in ways that could fundamentally shape the outcome of the vote. An Arab News-YouGov poll released last week suggests that Mr Trump is leading Ms Harris, 45% to 43%, nationally among Arab-Americans, a demographic that has traditionally voted largely for the Democratic Party that the vice-president represents. Michigan, a battleground state that is home to North America’s largest Arab-American population, estimated at more than 500,000 people, offers particularly worrying signs for Ms Harris. In a September poll by the Council on American-Islamic Relations, 40% of Muslim Michiganders said they would vote for the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, while 18% said they would pick Mr Trump, and only 12% backed Ms Harris. With Ms Harris and Mr Trump almost neck and neck in Michigan, which offers 16 electoral college votes, any loss of support could swing the state in favour of the former president.

The central reason for the shift in the Arab and Muslim American vote is Israel’s war on Gaza and the unflinching support that the current administration of President Joe Biden and Ms Harris has given to Israel. Bombs supplied by the US have been used by Israel to kill more than 42,000 Palestinians in a war that has now spread to Lebanon. Many Arab-American voters want to punish Ms Harris, even if that means a victory for Mr Trump, who, in his first term, had imposed a ban on visitors from multiple Muslim-majority nations and is even more pro-Israel than Mr Biden has been. What appeals to many voters is Mr Trump’s promise to end the war. Ms Harris’s embrace of the Republican, Liz Cheney, as a campaign ally has not helped her with Arab-American voters either. Ms Cheney’s father, Dick Cheney, is viewed by many as a chief instigator of the Iraq war. Mr Trump has been quick to seize the moment and has spoken publicly about Ms Harris’s loss of support among the demographic; several Arab-American community leaders in Michigan have endorsed him. The lesson for Ms Harris is clear: supporting a potential genocide abroad is not good politics at home.