The ministry of external affairs has expressed its shock over the verdict by a court in Qatar that has handed the death penalty to eight Indians who had formerly served in the navy. Even though diplomatic responses are often cloaked in inscrutability, it would not be far-fetched to suggest that the external affairs ministry had not expected such an outcome. It is not as if the Narendra Modi government had been in the dark about the developments. The Indian ambassador had met the accused last October; consular access had been granted soon after; the charges were presented in March, 2023, and the judgment delivered in October, notwithstanding the foreign minister’s assurance to Parliament that the sailors were very much a priority for the government. The lack of transparency around the events — there is very little in the public domain in terms of the details of the trial, the evidence presented, and the charges — makes it difficult to hazard a case on the merit of the judgment. But what is clear is that this poses a stern diplomatic challenge to Mr Modi’s government that is seeking to return to office for another term.
The developments highlight two uncomfortable truths. First, robust bilateral ties need not be a guarantee for diplomatic leverage. Even though Mr Modi’s diplomacy has been a failure in India’s immediate neighbourhood, isolating New Delhi even from its traditional allies, there is no doubting the fact that West Asia remains a bright spot on New Delhi’s diplomatic report card. Qatar is an example of this synergy. Doha is not only New Delhi’s principal supplier of LNG but it is also home to a significant expatriate community. Defence, trade and import are linchpins in this burgeoning relationship. Yet, all this diplomatic capital has not translated into Qatar being amenable to New Delhi’s plea for leniency — so far. The second, equally important, point to remember is that bilateral relationships are forever in a churn in response to global developments. There is speculation that the differences in the positions adopted by India and Qatar on the unfolding crisis between Israel and Palestine in Gaza may have a bearing on this particular episode. Mr Modi’s poor record in terms of discriminating against minorities at home may be a relevant factor as well. New Delhi has its task cut out. It must secure the lives of its citizens without undermining the gains it has made in Doha.
