Data, as the modern adage goes, is the new oil. But when weaponised, data can cause the political terrain to turn dangerously slippery. Consider the tenor of media reports on a paper presented by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister that said that while the share of India’s Hindu population fell by over 7.82% between 1950 and 2015, the Muslim population during the corresponding time period witnessed a sharp rise of 43.15%. The timing of the paper as well as the media’s mischievous interpretation of it is significant: India is in the middle of its general election in which Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party, apparently sensing trouble on the ground, have resorted to employing their polarising pitch. The bogey of a burgeoning Muslim population is a potent arrow in their quiver of divisiveness: this poll season — where is the Election Commission? — the prime minister has been on record alluding to Muslims as a community with a greater number of children. It must also be pointed out that the Union finance minister had referred to the constitution of a committee to take on the challenge of population growth in the interim budget even though the Economic Survey of 2019, presented by her in Parliament, had made it clear that India’s population growth would decelerate in the coming two decades. Noises have been made about a law on population control by BJP leaders on the basis of dodgy data.

Serious demographers are bound to dismiss these feverish speculations on account of the existence of credible figures that point to opposite trends. The census data have clearly established that decadal growth rate of Muslims has been slowing down and that the decline — 32.9% in 1981-1991 to 24.6% in 2001-2011 — has been sharper than that of the Hindus. Moreover, the fall in the total fertility rate between 2005-06 and 2019-21 has been the most precipitous among Muslims. The BJP, of course, is averse to relying on facts given that its broader objective is to electorally consolidate the Hindu vote on the basis of fearmongering. Does this also explain the lethargy of Mr Modi’s government to conduct the census exercise? Fresh census data would torpedo the BJP’s attempts to politicise — polarise — demographic realities. This also underscores the need to broaden the public engagement on population. The message that literacy and women’s agency, rather than religion, play critical roles in arresting population growth must be disseminated. The media, had it not been the regime’s poodle, could have played a role in this education.