As if the last few months have not seen enough political upheaval in Pakistan, this month brings even more political twists and turns with it. The new coalition government has completed a month in power and, yet, seems to be quite lost when it comes to going about it, be it on economic decisions or on countering Imran Khan’s narrative. The negotiations with the International Monetary Fund have begun again. The new government continues with the petroleum subsidies given by the previous government. Rumours are doing the rounds as a result: there were speculations about whether the government would complete its term — till August 2023 — or call for early elections this year. There seems to be no clarity despite the government reiterating that it will continue in office till next year.

Imran Khan has asked for elections this year. There are several options on the table. One: dissolve assemblies before the budget and go for elections by September. In this case, the government will not have to take tough economic decisions and a new caretaker set-up will take charge and present the budget by honouring the conditions set by the IMF. Two: present the budget with tough conditions leading to high inflation. Call elections after that. Elections will then take place by October or November. Three: present the budget. Try to continue in power for a few more months to bring in some semblance of economic stability after a few tough months, and then call elections for early next year. Four: present this year’s budget. Continue in office till the full term. Give another budget next year, which will be pro-people — an election-year budget — and go for polls later next year. All of these options are being considered by the ruling coalition but there are some caveats with each of them.

Option one: Imran Khan’s popularity is at an all-time high. If the coalition goes into elections now, the results may be very different than what they would have been a few months ago. Elections in three months’ time would mean a tough, neck-and-neck competition between Imran Khan’s party and that of Nawaz Sharif in Punjab. But some members in the ruling coalition think that this would not be a bad option given the fact that they have only been in government for just a month and can set the narrative about Imran Khan’s government being unpopular as it could not manage the economy. If they wait a few more months, the three-and-a-half years of economic mismanagement and misgovernance by Imran Khan will go to the back-burner while people will focus on the new government’s failure to deliver on its promise of economic stability. Some believe this is a risk that should be taken instead of buying more time.

Option two: any government that presents the budget with tough economic decisions will not be in an ideal situation while going into elections right after that. Many from the ruling coalition believe it would be a political disaster to go for elections after the budget. There is an apprehension that if there is enough backlash, some of the government’s allies will have a change of heart and leave the government that has a very thin majority in Parliament. As a result, the government would be forced to call elections. This is the least ideal position for the ruling coalition.

Option three: present a budget and then wait for a few months before calling elections that will take place early next year. This will give the coalition government some breathing space and also time for electoral reforms and usher in a semblance of economic stability. It would still not be an ideal situation to go to polls but it will, at least, give the people a chance to see the difference between this government and the previous one as far as the economic front is concerned.

Option four: complete its term and present two budgets. One this year and another next year, a few months before the elections. This is what the government is aiming for as the coalition feels that this will bring in a lot more economic stability, give time for reforms, and mend foreign relations. But as we know, the political situation in Pakistan can change within hours. Only time will tell whether it will be possible to exercise this option or not.

Then there is another theory being floated around: whenever the government calls for elections this year, whether now or after the budget, a caretaker set-up will be brought in and that it is going to be a technocratic set-up. This set-up will be in place for three months as per the Constitution. But it may prolong its tenure to another year or so if there is an economic emergency. Constitutionally, this is not possible but there are rumours that it may be given a legal cover if the economic crisis worsens during the caretaker set-up’s stint in power. But many believe that this is mere speculation and that there is no substance to it.

Some are questioning why the ruling coalition went for a vote of no-confidence against Imran Khan when his government was not delivering on the economic front as well as on governance. They should have let him complete his tenure and gone for elections in 2023 on the front foot. Some say it was done to avoid giving him the chance to make a choice for a key institutional appointment in November, which made other political parties fearful that the next elections could have been managed in his favour again. Imran Khan has denied the rumours related to the appointment. Then there are those who suggested that after a successful vote of no-confidence, the new government should have called for elections last month after quickly bringing in election reforms. The delay makes it obvious that the ruling coalition had not done its homework. Others say this was not an option because no government wants to come in for just a month or two. Whatever the reasons may be, now the government is between a rock and a hard place. Let’s see what the future has in store for us.

Mehmal Sarfraz is a journalist based in Lahore; mehmal.s@gmail.com