Pakistan's military establishment has striven for ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan for decades. For the idea to work, the regime in Afghanistan needs to be a close ally of Pakistan. The seizure of power by the Taliban in 2021 was, therefore, perceived to be the realisation of a long-cherished strategic doctrine for Pakistan. However, this triumph was short-lived as fault lines — new and old — began to emerge within weeks of the Taliban taking control.
Ever since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, Pakistan has received a huge influx of Afghan refugees. In October 2023, Pakistan’s caretaker government ordered nearly 1.7 million undocumented Afghan refugees to leave the country. The Afghan nationals were blamed for the spike in terror attacks in Pakistan and accused of being involved in the drugs trade. But this does not explain the whole picture. Pakistan has been demanding that the Taliban government act against the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Islamabad believes that the recent terrorist attacks in different provinces of Pakistan had support from across the border. The Taliban leadership in Kabul, however, rejected Pakistan’s claims and pressed upon Islamabad to solve its internal problems without blaming the Taliban. Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, the spokesperson of the ministry of foreign affairs of Pakistan, stated that Islamabad has shared detailed information with the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan about the locations of TTP sanctuaries in Afghanistan. Some reports suggest that Pakistan will not restrain itself from conducting surgical strikes on TTP hideouts in Afghanistan in the wake of another terrorist attack.
It appears that Islamabad is unhappy with the Taliban regime in Kabul. Pakistan’s caretaker prime minister, Anwar ul Haq Kakar, has said that relations with Afghanistan would not improve until a “legitimate government” takes office there. When read between the lines, can it be inferred that Kakar’s statement suggested that Pakistan is mulling over withdrawing its support for the Taliban? If such a step is pursued by the Pakistan government, it could have implications on the legitimacy of the Taliban regime in international relations. Apart from expelling Afghan immigrants, Pakistan has imposed restrictions on the transit of Afghan goods through Pakistan: this would hurt Afghanistan’s economy.
The question is this: why is the Taliban not acting against TTP-sponsored terrorism? The truth is that the Taliban and the TTP are ideologically aligned. The latter helped the Taliban during its fight against American forces; the Taliban is now returning the favour. The TTP seeks to establish an Islamic emirate on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border along the lines of the Taliban regime in Kabul. The situation, it can be argued, bears proof of the failure of Islamabad’s strategic vision.
Pakistan may choose to inflict further economic restrictions or conduct cross-border strikes within Afghanistan. While it is hard to predict the outcomes of these moves, such steps would result in greater hatred for Pakistan within Afghanistan. The TTP could then use the antipathy to engage in retaliatory violence within Pakistan.
Islamabad is on sticky ground. The rift notwithstanding, Pakistan is unlikely to desert its friend in Afghanistan. While continuing to serve as the primary ally of the Taliban regime, Islamabad is also likely to put pressure on Kabul to address Pakistan’s concerns.
Muneeb Yousuf and Mohammad U. Bhatti are researchers at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi
