With assembly polls approaching in Tripura, the Tipra Motha of the royal scion, Pradyot Kishore Debbarman, has started to claim that it will be the kingmaker in the battle in 2023. The hills are currently dominated by the Motha, the ruling party of the Tripura Tribal Areas Autonomous District Council. The tribals, residing mostly in the hills, account for 31% of the state population and 20 assembly seats are reserved for them. They also have a sizable presence in another 15-16 seats.

Last year the Motha-led alliance came to power by winning 18 seats and securing 46.73% of the votes. The Bharatiya Janata Party, in power in Tripura, managed to grab only 9 seats and its tribal ally, the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura of N.C. Debbarma, drew a blank. Despite contesting 3 more seats than the BJP, the IPFT (NC) bagged 10.62% votes while the saffron party got 18.72% votes. The Communist Party of India (Marxist)-led Left, which had been winning the ADC since 2005, was reduced to zero with a vote share of 14.51%.

Since then, the Motha has increased its strength in the tribal belt with its slogan of ‘Greater Tipraland’, a separate state for indigenous communities. There isn’t much difference between the Motha’s demand and the IPFT (NC)’s demand for ‘Tipraland’, which brought big gains for NC’s party. This slogan changed the politics of the hills, which was then the citadel of the Left. The tribal base of the IPFT (NC) was one of the main reasons for the BJP’s success in Tripura in 2018.

However, after NC’s party became a junior partner in the BJP government, it slowed down on the demand for separate statehood. This started causing dissent among the supporters and Pradyot stepped in to fill the void by forming the Tipra Motha with the demand of Greater Tipraland. Later, tribal parties like IPFT (Tipraha), Tipraland State Party and its ally, Indigenous Nationalist Party of Twipra, merged with his party.

As IPFT (NC) started to decline, internal churning within the party led to a split into two factions — one led by N.C. Debbarma, the current state revenue minister, and the other led by Mevar Jamatia, who was the tribal welfare minister in the Biplab Deb ministry. The Mevar led faction merged with the Motha. Although Mevar is yet to join the Motha officially, his wife, Gita Debbarma, joined Pradyot’s party. Last year, Brishaketu Debbarma, the MLA from the Simna (ST) constituency, joined the Motha. Although the BJP is keen to continue its alliance with the IPFT (NC), there is concern within the latter since the BJP is unlikely to repeat 2018’s offer of 9 seats.

Even as the Motha was busy strengthening its dominance after coming to power in the ADC, its relations deteriorated with the Tipraland People’s Front leader, Patal Kanya Jamatia. She joined the BJP along with her supporters and was made the party state vice-president. The BJP, which is critical of the separate statehood demand, is far behind the Motha in the hills. It received a big jolt when the leader of the Opposition in the ADC, Hangsho Kumar Tripura, left the party and joined the Motha along with thousands of supporters.

The rise and fall of the IPFT (NC) within a short period sends an important message that electoral dividends can’t be reaped for a long time through emotional demands. This is what gives hope to the CPI (M). Last year, it appointed Jitendra Chaudhury, the president of Gana Mukti Parishad, the party’s tribal wing, as the state general-secretary to recover its support among tribals. Left organisations have also started increasing their activities in the hills. The GMP along with its youth organisation, the Tribal Youth Federation, held a big rally in Agartala with the focus on price rise, scarcity of food, unemployment, empowerment of the TTAADC, and the inclusion of Kokborok, the lingua franca of tribals, in the Eighth Schedule of the Constitution. Ahead of the big battle in 2023, the Village Council polls of the TTAADC— if they are held before it— are going to be a dress rehearsal for the stakeholders to test their strength in the hills.

(Sagarneel Sinha is a political commentator)