Nepal’s three-time former prime minister, K.P. Sharma Oli, was on Monday sworn in for a fourth time after the Himalayan nation’s former prime minister, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, better known as Prachanda, lost a vote of confidence last week. In many ways, this is the latest chapter in Nepal’s own Game of Thrones: in 16 years as a republic after the abolition of the monarchy in 2008, the country has had 15 governments, including the one Mr Oli will now head. Yet, despite its chronic political instability, Nepal has for the most part been led by politicians who, across the political spectrum, have gone out of their way to prioritise relations with India even though they have tried, in recent years, to also strengthen ties with China. Mr Oli has in the past stood out as a particularly challenging figure for New Delhi to deal with. In 2015, after Nepal adopted a new Constitution that India was opposed to, Mr Oli as prime minister accused the larger nation of blockading the border. A landlocked country, Nepal depends on India not only as a key trading partner but also for a trade route to reach the ocean. New Delhi insisted that the blockade was not its doing but the outcome of spontaneous protests by members of Nepal’s Madhesi community who were unhappy with the Constitution. Mr Oli also locked horns with India over claims that parts of Uttarakhand belong to Nepal — a suggestion that New Delhi rejected.
Against this backdrop, it would be natural for India’s strategic community to view Mr Oli’s return to office with apprehension. However, there are several reasons for New Delhi to approach the change in Nepal’s government with cautious optimism. Mr Oli’s minority government will depend on the support of the Nepali Congress, the largest political party in Nepal’s Parliament, which has traditionally leaned towards India. Meanwhile, public perceptions about Nepal’s neighbours have also shifted in recent years. While India has long been a bogeyman blamed by sections in Nepal as a disrespectful big brother, China too has, of late, faced mounting scrutiny within Nepal over alleged interference and growing influence. Little wonder then that Mr Oli’s party declared that foreign policy would be “neutral” under its watch. It would be naïve on the part of any Nepalese government to try to test relations with India in such a climate. New Delhi on its part must avoid steps that push Kathmandu away. Steady relations between India and Nepal are in the interest of both nations no matter who is in power in either country.