Few individuals epitomise the ups and downs of Pakistani politics better than the former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif. There are possibly no greater survivors of that snake pit — the one which Mr Sharif has entered, once again, after returning to Pakistan last Saturday following four years in exile in London. Months before the next general elections, his arrival in Islamabad underscores how Pakistani politics could be poised for yet another chapter — even though it might read very much like some previous ones. How that story unfolds will also have implications for India. Mr Sharif’s presence is likely to bolster the political fortunes of his Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) party, given his stature as its leading light and charismatic leader. But he remains convicted on corruption charges. Although he is out on bail, he will need the conviction to be set aside in order to be able to stand for political office. Mr Sharif’s return to Pakistan suggests that the country’s powerful ‘Establishment’ — as the military is known — has decided to back him and his brother, Shahbaz Sharif, who was prime minister until recently. In theory, all of this might point to a comfortable win for the PML(N) in the coming elections. But Pakistan, especially in recent years, has shown that even the military does not have full control over the country and the street.

Most independent polls show that the ousted former prime minister, Imran Khan, who is currently in jail, remains by far the most popular politician in the country. His supporters have braved repression from security forces to protest what they believe is an unjust attempt to crush their movement. As things stand, like Mr Sharif, Mr Khan cannot contest the general election. Yet it remains far from settled how ordinary Pakistanis, who continue to back the former cricket superstar, will respond to an election that appears like a fixed match and how that might affect the credibility of the Pakistani military. For India, a potential return to power for Mr Sharif could bring more familiarity to tense ties that became particularly unpredictable under the maverick Mr Khan. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is known to have a personal relationship with Mr Sharif whose family home near Lahore he visited in 2015. But Mr Sharif is no open book: pushed out of power thrice, he has twice lived in exile, yet sprung surprises to return to centre stage. The curtains have just parted on his next act.