Jairam Gupta, a small-time businessman in Thangal Bazar under Thangmeiband Assembly constituency in Imphal West, is very clear about whom he will vote for in the first phase of Manipur polls on February 28.

“I like the BJP but my vote will go to (Khumukcham) Joykisan Singh ji of the JDU. He always stands up for people like us, settled here but with roots outside the state,” Kumar, hailing from Bihar’s Vaishali district, tells The Telegraph.

Notwithstanding Gupta’s affinity for Janata Dal United and Joykisan, a sitting Congress MLA who joined the JDU in January, Thangmeiband is likely to see a tight contest between Joykisan, BJP’s Jotin Waikhom and H. Nutanchandra of Congress.

But there are many like Gupta who feel that the JDU could be the surprise package in the two-phase polls, the second scheduled for March 5.

Till a few weeks ago, the battle for Manipur was essentially seen as a fight between the ruling BJP and the Opposition Congress, but insiders in both parties admit the National People’s Party (NPP), JDU and Naga People’s Front (NPF) could play more than a “minor” role post result, because they fear a hung House.

The JDU, which rules Bihar in alliance with the BJP, has fielded 38 candidates — mostly high-profile rebels from the BJP, Congress and NPP, including four sitting MLAs, a former chief secretary and a former DGP. There are also few new — but known faces — such as former police official Thounaojam Brinda, who resigned last year to join politics to “change” the system, creating a buzz around the party but whether it will result in seats remains to be seen.

Though polls in Manipur are mostly candidate-centric, Aribam Gautam Sharma, advocate and media-in-charge of the JDU state unit, tells The Telegraph that they are also conveying to the voters that Bihar under JDU rule is marching ahead at a good pace and they want the same for the state. Since the party is a “major player” at the Centre, funds for development will never be an issue as is usually feared by most, he said.

“People hailing from Bihar have great regards for Nitish ji and he is one of our key poll planks because of his clean image and the way Bihar is progressing under him. Nitish ji is quite well known among the literate voters and we are now working on the uninitiated voters. We have made good progress in the past couple of weeks,” Sharma said.

JDU general secretary Said Afaque Ahmed Khan, who is in charge of Northeast, has been camping in the state since January. Khan tells The Telegraph they are expecting about 15 seats in the 60-member House. Political observers do not share his opitimism but feel JDU will get a few seats.

BJP insiders admitted that the NPP has become a “major headache” as the polls draw near. The Congress, on the other hand, sees the JDU as the “spoiler” without having “any presence of note” in the state and a “B Team” of the BJP, a charge dismissed by both the BJP and the JDU.

“We have no alliance with any party and will join the party which will work for Manipur’s betterment. We are showcasing Nitish ji and the Bihar model of governance (development with justice) for a better and brighter Manipur. We are sure to play a key role post result,” Khan said.

The party has also committed to getting the contentious Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, 1958, repealed, ensuring the territorial integrity of Manipur, holding of the autonomous district polls within six months besides peace and stability.

The JDU has not fielded any candidate against the incumbent Manipur chief minister N. Biren Singh, a move which suggest it would eventually go with the BJP, more particularly with Singh, if things become tight following the declaration of results on March 10.

The “Bihar model of governance” emphasises on women empowerment through reservation in local bodies, government jobs and in professional colleges. “JDU-led government has already brought many such legislations in Bihar, due to which lakhs of women are decision makers in rural and urban Bihar. Subsequently few other states are slowly replicating the Bihar model,” Khan said.

Khan also said the party is not new to Manipur or the Northeast and the party has been around in the state since the nineties as the Samata Party, JDU’s forerunner.

“We did not contest the 2017 Manipur Assembly polls at the last moment, but several of our candidates won from other parties. We won a seat in the 2018 Nagaland and seven in the 2019 Arunachal Pradesh Assembly polls. We won nine out of 20 seats in the 2020 Itanagar municipal polls. We also contested in Assam last year,” Khan said, adding four party MPs are presently campaigning in the state.

Political observers and BJP insiders feel the BJP will finish as the single-largest party but may not cross the magic figure of 31 because of “shocking” candidate selection in at least 16 seats, and the defections that followed these selections.

However, BJP leaders appeared confident of forming the next government as they did in 2017 despite finishing second with 21 seats to Congress’ 28 with help from the JDU, NPF and even the NPP, which has been very critical of incumbent chief minister N. Biren Singh, as they are “still” allies of the BJP at the Centre.

The NPF and NPP, though part of the BJP-led government in Manipur, are contesting the polls separately.

Biren Singh, who had pushed the go-it-alone line to break free from the hurdles posed by allies in the functioning of the government, remains confident of winning 40-plus seats.