The outcome of the two-phase Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) polls which began on Monday is set to have a bearing on the future of the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF) as it battles anti-incumbency and a belligerent ally in the ruling BJP going all out to make its presence felt in the Bodo belt with an eye on the 2021 Assembly polls.

The first phase of BTC polls on Monday saw polling in 10 constituencies under Udalguri district (75 per cent) and 11 in Baksa district (78 per cent) amid very tight security. It recorded a turnout of over 76 per cent. In the second phase on December 10, polling will be held in 12 seats in Kokrajhar district and seven in Chirang district. Polling is being held through ballots. Counting of votes will take place on December 12.

The BPF has been a formidable force, having ruled the BTC for three straight terms since its formation in 2005 and also holding sway over 12 Assembly seats in the Bodo belt, helping it become a coalition partner, twice in the Tarun Gogoi-led Congress government and then in the BJP-led government in 2016.

However, with ally BJP deciding to contest the 40-member council polls on its own despite being partners in the state government, the emergence of the Pramod Bodo-led United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL), a “historic” AIUDF-Congress alliance and the presence of Gana Suraksha Party (which espouses the cause of non-Bodos), the BPF’s job of retaining power has become extremely difficult if not impossible, BTC watchers said.under the Sixth Schedule.

The first phase of BTC polls on Monday saw polling in 10 constituencies under Udalguri district (75 per cent) and 11 in Baksa district (78 per cent) amid very tight security Shajid Khan

Anti-incumbency against the BPF too, reflected in the 2015 polls when it finished with 19 seats, has also increased manifold, amplified by the high decibel campaign launched by the BJP which has not let go of any opportunity to project the BPF in poor light.

Senior BJP leader and cabinet minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, spearheading the ruling party’s campaign in the BTC since October, has publicly accused the BPF of rampant corruption and even mocking its leader Hagrama Mohilary. Sarma has even said that the tie up with the BPF was only till before the 2021 Assembly polls, virtually signalling the end of ties it had forged with the BPF before the 2016 state elections.

In comparison, Sarma has been soft against the UPPL or its leader, keeping its doors open for any post-poll possibility, either with the BPF or the UPPL or with both.

That the BPF has not pulled out of the alliance despite extreme provocation suggests there could be more than meets the eye, BTC watchers said. BPF has three ministers in the Sarbananda Sonowal government.

For the BJP, which had won one seat in 2015 and is contesting 26 seats and supporting a couple of Independents this time round, the BTC has become important in context of next year’s Assembly polls.

Winning the BTC polls or holding the key to the formation of the council would increase the BJP’s bargaining power for the 12 Assembly seats in the BTC. Till now, it was the BPF which been calling the shots in the BTC.

Going by campaigning, the BJP seems to have won the election, said a BTC watcher, but it is still a tight one to call.

“The BJP has gone all out to make a mark and so has the UPPL. But the BPF too is fighting hard and still remains the party to beat as everyone is targeting it. Since there will be division of votes, it will be too tight to call,” a BTC watcher said.

When the BTC elections were announced in April but put off because of the pandemic, it appeared to be a fight between the BPF, the UPPL and the Gana Suraksha Party but the postponement saw the BJP step up its presence like never before.

The BTC is presently under governor’s rule after the council’s five-year term expired on April 27.

“The outcome will have as much bearing on the BPF as it will be on next year’s Assembly polls. Those controlling the BTC always enjoy an edge in the Assembly polls,” said a BPF watcher.

The BJP’s manifesto revolves around the new Bodo accord signed in January, offering peace and development to the local populace. The BJP has promised to implement provisions of the accord at the earliest such as increasing the number of council seats from 40 to 60 and exclusion or inclusion of non-Bodo majority villages from the BTC so that every community is properly represented.

Sarma’s harping on issuance of land pattas (documents) and the sale and buying of land within a stipulated timeframe if the BJP is voted to power has created a buzz since it is an emotive issue with non-tribals who comprise over 60 per cent of the total population of about 32 lakh in the council which comes