A typhoon barrelling across the Philippines has the seeds of a potential Puja spoilsport in Kolkata.
In a preliminary update on the Puja weather, the Met office said on Monday that the festive days — October 2 to 5 — are likely to be rainy in Kolkata, thanks to a cyclonic circulation over the Bay.
But it was still too early to predict the intensity of the rain, said an official.
This year, Sashthi falls on October 1 and Dashami on October 5.
“A cyclonic circulation is likely to take shape over the Bay of Bengal on October 1.
A rainy spell is likely in Kolkata and other parts of coastal Bengal from October 2 to 5,” said G.K. Das, director, India Meteorological Department, Kolkata.
“The intensity of the showers will depend on the location of the system and its future course. We should have a clearer picture by Wednesday,” he said.
The system is likely to be a remnant of Typhoon Noru, a powerful tropical storm that hit the Philippines on Monday.
At least five rescue workers have been killed in the typhoon that has left homes flooded and millions without electricity, according to reports.
“The system is likely to reach the Bay of Bengal via Thailand and Myanmar. While on land, the storm will weaken. But once in the sea, it will gain some steam again,” said Das of IMD.
If the system reaches the Bengal coast after travelling over 3,000km, it is likely to trigger rain on the prime Puja days.
Durga Puja is back in its full bloom after two Covid-scarred years.
Organisers and revellers will earnestly hope that the Met forecast does not come true.
The run-up to the Puja is likely to see relatively dry weather with occasional thunderstorms, said Das.
The climatological conditions in late September and October — like sea surface temperature and wind shear — are suitable for intensification of any weather system.
Das said it was “too early” to predict the system’s future.
“A system forming over the Andaman sea has 2,000km to cover before it comes near the eastern coast. There is a lot of time to gain strength. The same factor, distance, often weakens a system as it peaks too early. A system over the northeast or central Bay is some 500km from the east coast. The distance is relatively small for the system to intensify into a major storm. We are monitoring the storm. We hope to get a better understanding in the coming days,” said Das.
Last year, Durga Puja was relatively dry. Dashami saw some rain, which was attributed to local clouds. But immediately after the Puja, the city was in the middle of a wet spell because of a low-pressure area over the Bay.
The past few days have been hot and humid.
The conditions are likely to be similar till Sunday, the Met office said.
“The combination of heat and humidity can trigger localised thunderstorms and rain,” an official said.
Some pockets of Kolkata got such a spell on Monday evening.
