The Met office has predicted a dry and sunny Durga Puja, with a slight possibility of rain towards the end.
This year, the Puja starts as late as October 20 and it means a degree of relief from the sweaty conditions that pandal-hoppers are usually subjected to almost every year.
“On October 20, 21 and 22 (Sashthi, Saptami and Ashtami), the weather in Kolkata is likely to be dry and the sky is expected to be bright and sunny. On October 23 and 24 (Navami and Dashami), some rain is not ruled out. But the showers, if any, are likely to be light,” said G.K. Das, director, India Meteorological Department, Kolkata.
The forecast was issued on the day the monsoon retreated from Kolkata and south Bengal.
Puja organisers hope the forecast holds true.
“It (the forecast) is very encouraging. We hope it actually happens. The past few days have been hot. Usually, a series of hot days result in a spell of heavy rain. I hope that does not happen during the Puja. About 90 per cent of our venue is open,” said Sudipta Kumar, general secretary of Deshapriya Park Durgotsab.
Usually, a warm spell is followed by rain when the monsoon is active. The moisture, drawn in from the Bay by the monsoon currents, partners with the pent-up heat to result in the formation of rain-bearing clouds. But the season is changing.
The retreat is marked by a change in the flow of wind. The moisture-laden winds from the Bay are no longer active in Kolkata. Instead, dry winds from north and northwestern India are dominant in the upper tracts of the atmosphere.
In 2020, Sashthi was on October 22. But in the middle of a raging pandemic, there was hardly any celebration. A court order had barred visitors from pandals.
It seems a long time ago, said Avishek Bhattacharya, secretary of Tallah Barowari Durga Puja, which also has a sizeable open space.
“The expectation is high this year. The billboards that have almost covered the city are a testament to that. If the weather does not play spoilsport, this year will see unprecedented footfall,” he said.
Last year, the Met office had predicted uniform and widespread rainfall from Sashthi to Dashami (October 1 to 5) as a cyclonic circulation loomed over the Bay of Bengal.
The fear of a washout intensified after a sharp spell of showers on Sashthi evening. But the system moved towards the Andhra Pradesh coast, sparing Kolkata a washout.
This year, the possibility of a cyclonic circulation in Myanmar has prompted the Met office to predict minor chances of rain on Navami and Dashami. “In case the system takes shape, moisture-laden winds will reach Kolkata via Bangladesh and the Bay of Bengal,” said Das of IMD.
The formal bulletin has this to say about October 23 and 24: “Generally cloudy
sky with 30-40 per cent possibility of very light to light rain at some places over Kolkata, East Midnapore, West Midnapore, South 24-Parganas, North 24-Parganas, Howrah and Hooghly districts.”
The run-up to the Puja is also expected to be dry and sunny.