A cyclonic storm is likely to build up over the Bay of Bengal after May 8, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted on Wednesday.
The latest forecast is an update on IMD’s prediction on Tuesday where it had only mentioned that “a low pressure area is likely to form over the same region during subsequent 48 hours (May 7 and 8)”.
Sources have pointed out to The Plurals that though the exact route of the possible cyclone, which will be called Mocha once generated, will not be known till the low pressure builds up; the cyclone is likely to impact coastal areas around May 12.
“A cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over Southeast Bay of Bengal around 6th May, 2023. Under its influence a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region around 7th May. It is likely to concentrate into a depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal on 8th May. Thereafter, it is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm while moving nearly northwards towards central Bay of Bengal,” IMD shared around 5 pm on Wednesday.
IMD has also pointed out that under the influence of the cyclonic disturbance over Bay of Bengal, the “wind speed would gradually increase (to) 50-60 kmph gusting to 70 kmph over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas”.
IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said that cyclones & depressions are common in May and that “it would not be possible to predict the area where it is likely to hit unless the low-pressure area is formed” .
Earlier in the day, IMD had hinted at the possibility of a cyclonic storm as its daily tropical outlook said there was a good possibility of the intensification of the depression to be generated on May 8. It also pointed out that the cyclone will move “nearly north wards” as it intensifies. The IMD GFS model, referred to in the report, mentioned the possibility of “CS (cyclonic storm) on 11th & SCS (severe cyclonic storm) on 12 th”.
“Possibility of a cyclone is confirmed and it is not likely to impact the coast before May 12; though” , said a senior IMD official on Wednesday evening.