West Bengal is set to become the 60th most climate risk-prone region in the world by 2050 among the more than 2,600 regions across the world that have been studied, says a global report published this week.
The modelling-based study, XDI’s Gross Domestic Climate Risk, which is primarily aimed at helping investors decide on their long-term investment destinations, predicts that 14 Indian states are likely to be among the top 100 regions facing climate risk by the middle of this century.
“West Bengal is ranked 60th in terms of climate risk by 2050, and the modelling shows that the damage to the built environment in Bengal may increase 81 per cent from 1990 to 2050,” an expert associated with the study told The Telegraph. “Flooding is the driving hazard for this damage in West Bengal, but coastal inundation plays a significant role, too.”
Bihar is set to top the list of the 14 Indian states with a global rank of 22, followed by Uttar Pradesh (25) and Assam (28).
Internationally, China leads the list of vulnerable regions, followed by the US and India. Major economic hubs such as Buenos Aires (Argentina), Sao Paulo (Brazil), Jakarta (Indonesia), Ho Chi Minh City (Vietnam) and Taiwan are set to be among the top 100 by 2050.
“This is the first time there has been a physical climate risk analysis focused exclusively on the built environment (constructions), comparing every state, province, and territory in the world,” says the report.
“XDI’s Gross Domestic Climate Risk ranks over 2,600 jurisdictions around the world in 2050 according to modelled projections of damage to the built environment from extreme weather and climate change,” said XDI CEO Rohan Hamden.
Hamden said the analysis had been released “in response to demand from investors for data on sub-sovereign and regional risk”.
A Kolkata-based climate researcher said the study vindicated India’s first official climate assessment report, released in 2020, which identified West Bengal as one of the most climatically vulnerable states of India with a record number of severe cyclones and thunderstorms, sea-level rise and projected flood risk.
The Bay of Bengal region was hit by 41 severe cyclonic storms and 21 cyclonic storms in May between 1891 and 2018, says the Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region, prepared by the Union ministry of earth sciences.
“Bengal experienced the most intense thunderstorm events and high casualties during the period (1978- 2012),” says the central report, which also points out that the sea level has been rising at the rate of 5cm a decade along the Sunderbans, the highest in the country.
“The latest global report has vindicated what we have been saying — West Bengal needs a lot of support from the Centre and international sources to combat disasters brought on by climate change,” said Javed Ahmed Khan, West Bengal’s disaster management minister.
“We are aware of the situation and have started working on a climate action plan,” environment minister Manas Bhuniya said.