The biggest question heading into the latest Ballon d’Or gala in Paris on October 30 revolves around the identity of the individual selected to hand over football’s most prestigious individual prize. For the identity of the recipient is almost certain. Lionel Messi, who already has as many Ballons d’Or as all other active players put together, is the favourite to claim an unprecedented eighth gong on Monday. Imminent as Messi’s triumph feels, it is far from being unanimous, with a whole host of football experts and fans convinced that Erling Haaland deserves it instead.
“The Ballon d’Or has to be [divided into] two sections. One for Messi, and another one for everyone else,” opined Pep Guardiola, Haaland’s current manager at Manchester City and the man who saw Messi clinch three consecutive Golden Balls while coaching the Argentine at Barcelona. “The worst season of Messi is the best of the rest,” acknowledged Guardiola, while adding that “Haaland should win”. Just as well that Guardiola is not in charge of the Ballon d’Or, which has been awarded by France Football, a French magazine, every year since 1956 (with the exception of the pandemic-ridden 2020). From being a feather in the cap of generational talents in the 20th century, the Ballon d’Or has transformed into an obsession for the best of the modern era (just ask Cristiano Ronaldo or Neymar). The subsequent debates over who should be the rightful winner each year far surpasses the speculation concerning Nobel laureates and Oscar awardees. The result, inevitably, is controversy. And no year seems as controversial as 2023.
Is the World Cup bigger than a European treble?
Messi celebrating his World Cup win with Argentina; (right) Erling Haaland poses with the UEFA Champions League trophy alongside his Manchester City teammates
There are three official criteria that a player has to meet in order to win the Ballon d’Or — “individual performance, crucial actions and impressive on-field behaviour; vital role in the team and honours; and [promoting] fair-play [while being] classy on-field.” In other words, nothing that is remotely objective. Matters get more complicated when considering who votes for the Ballon d’Or. According to the current regulations, one journalist from each of the top 100 nations in the men’s FIFA rankings gets a vote. A single vote involves ranking the top five players (from a 30-man shortlist) for a given year, with specific points allocated to each rank. The player with the most points wins. However, as revealed in the past, many journalists bring their biases and prejudices to their ballots, blindly backing players from their own countries and/or sidelining those from their arch rivals. No wonder then that Raheem Sterling and Mason Mount were chosen by some ahead of Messi in 2021. Considering all this, it is no surprise that the Ballon d’Or is occasionally mocked as a popularity contest. And yet, such is its appeal that it still retains its power to anoint “the best in the world”.
For this year’s award, the primary contention is this — Haaland won the European treble of the Premier League, the UEFA Champions League and the FA Cup with Man City, while Messi sealed his lifelong ambition to hold aloft the World Cup for Argentina. Which of the two achievements matters more? There are those that believe that the quadrennial nature of the World Cup, not to mention the fact that it is the most watched sporting competition on the planet, imbues it with an unmatchable aura. Hence, being the protagonist of a victorious World Cup campaign makes Messi the front-runner. The counter argument is that the World Cup is a month-long event, which does not require as much consistency and endurance as an entire club season. Since Haaland won all he could at club level with City, all the while scoring a bucketload of goals, he should be in pole position to clinch his first Ballon d’Or.
Messi, unlike Haaland, delivered when it mattered most
Messi scoring his second goal of the 2022 World Cup final against France
It is a fruitless debate to weigh Messi’s World Cup against Haaland’s treble. For precedent, past World Cup winners like Ronaldo Nazario (2002) and Fabio Cannavaro (2006) swept the Ballon d’Or on the merit of their national team displays on the biggest stage. At the same time, Messi himself has collected two Ballons d’Or for being the focal point of a treble-winning club (2009 and 2015) but Wesley Sneijder (2010) and Franck Ribery (2013) have not. Instead of getting bogged down with team honours, a look at the vital individual statistics for Messi and Haaland might prove more illuminating.
Between August 2022 and July 2023 (the period under consideration for this year’s Ballon d’Or), Messi scored 41 goals and assisted a further 26 for club and country, whereas Haaland netted 56 times alongside creating 10 goals for his teammates in all competitions. Combine their attacking numbers and Messi has one more direct goal contribution than Haaland. On digging deeper, though, the gulf becomes clear. On attacking parameters like chances created, key passes played and dribbles completed, Haaland is nowhere near Messi, whose 16 man of the match titles are more than anyone else over the duration. Notwithstanding Haaland’s record-breaking 36 goals in the Premier League in 2022/23, it is Messi who finished last term as the highest-rated player in Europe’s top five leagues, with an average match score of 8.28. At the World Cup in Qatar, which Haaland and his Norway squad could only watch from home, Messi was once again the leading performer as determined by quantifiable metrics, with a rating of 8.25 (all data as per WhoScored).
To go with his statistical supremacy, Messi also delivered when it mattered most. Incredible as Haaland’s goal output was, he remained scoreless across three semi-final games and two finals for City. During the Premier League run-in, where City managed to fend off Arsenal, it was Ilkay Gundogan who proved to be City’s ace, not Haaland. On the other hand, Messi became the first player in World Cup history to score in every single knockout match, including a brace in the final against France. Although he went missing in the Champions League for Paris Saint-Germain (PSG), Messi was instrumental in guiding Inter Miami to the Leagues Cup, scoring 10 goals en route to the first piece of silverware for the club co-owned by David Beckham.
Moments of genius that are uniquely Messi
Messi going toe-to-toe with Croatia’s Josko Gvardiol
In case you are still not convinced that Messi deserves the Ballon d’Or, rewind to two moments from the World Cup in December, First, to December 10, when Argentina met the Netherlands in the quarter-finals, and Messi threaded a pass to Nahuel Molina that went through the legs of Nathan Ake. Rewatch that pass and observe how Messi does not even lift his head to look at Molina on the right flank, shielding the ball from three Oranje shirts before executing a reverse through-ball that very few players could have conceived, let alone executed. Second, to December 13, when Argentina took on Croatia in the semi-finals, and Messi received the ball near the halfway line with 68 minutes on the clock. What followed brought down Josko Gvardiol’s confidence almost as much as his market value. Deemed to be the outstanding defender of the tournament, the Croatian centre-half was turned inside out and left chasing shadows by a man 14 years his senior. As Messi danced around and past Gvardiol to set up Julian Alvarez for Argentina’s third goal, nobody needed reminding that this was the best player in the world, arguably the greatest of all time, doing things only he can do.
At 23, there is plenty of time for Haaland to claim the Ballon d’Or, even though the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham will have something to say about that. But this year’s Ballon d’Or is meant for the man who knows its touch better than anyone else. Not least because of two moments of genius that are uniquely Messi. As a 36-year-old, Messi is set to become the oldest Ballon d’Or winner since Stanley Matthews (41) in 1956. Rumours suggest that a special tribute is being planned in Paris to mark the occasion, which is sure to be Messi’s final Ballon d’Or. The final time that Messi takes centre stage at the Theatre du Chatelet to receive a prize that will always be attached to his legacy the way the the ball feels attached to his boots.
