Is it easier in India to get a job as a rocket scientist or an unskilled, unschooled labourer? The fact that the question is being asked implies that the illiterate labourer has the edge. According to a report of the labour bureau of the Indian ministry of labour and employment (see box), “the unemployment rate among the persons who can't read and write any language or are considered as 'not literate' is lowest.”

The report deals with youth and it makes two other points in this context. First, unemployment rate rises with education level. Second, one person out of three with a degree (graduation and above) is unemployed.

If life were that simple, one should abandon all literacy programmes and dismantle the school education structure (which kid likes to go to school anyway). No more midday meals to woo children to attend classes (not every headmaster makes a competent cook.) No backbreaking schoolbags and time-gobbling tuitions (even in villages).

Reality, however, is different.

In the first place, the rocket scientist makes more in a week than the labourer does in a year. So, if there is opportunity, there is no real choice. But opportunity in India has meant an unseemly rush to capture the spoils before anybody else. It often creates too much supply when demand does not take off.

Consider civil engineering. Over the past decade, India was expected to invest majorly in building infrastructure. It didn’t happen. Qualified civil engineers, even from the IITs, found themselves jobless.

To go back to our analogy of rocket scientist, how many can a country need? If hundreds try to become rocket scientists because of the remuneration, several will be left trying to apply their skills to some other job description. They might as well have studied English or Zoology.

It is not that the problem has not been realised. Several government agencies and private organisations are involved in the process of “skilling”. They start off by identifying areas where demand will be. They then proceed to teach the right skills to the youth.

Don’t sneer at the income these skilled workers can command. According to a study by Boston University professor of economics Laurence Kotlikoff, a plumber makes just about as much as a doctor. Another study by economists Stacy Dale and Alan Krueger shows that going to top colleges and universities makes little difference to future income.

So is higher education useless from an earnings point of view? No, pure numbers don’t take in the intangibles. According to Georgetown University professor Anthony Carnevale, education teaches people to interact with each other. “People who go to college, especially elite colleges, tend to come out with a certain amount of polish and understanding about how the world works,” he says. This kind of knowledge is valuable in the workplace, and in life, adds Carnevale.

If you look at jobs, education and related issues, India is in much the same position as the US was a few decades ago. “In 1970, only 26 per cent of middle-class workers had any kind of education beyond high school,” says Emily Hanford, education expert. “Today, nearly 60 per cent of all jobs in the US economy require higher education.”

Where are the jobs in India going to come from? IT’s day is not yet spent; TCS has over 300,000 employees and is adding 25,000 to 35,000 a year. BPO has gone off the rails somehow. Manufacturing will become specialised and you need education. Modern trade (when the BJP government grows out of its trader mentality) is really the great big job hope. You don’t really need college education for that but you require the soft skills that go with it.

When MBAs start selling you soap (they do, but this is in more direct fashion) you will realise why a little learning is dangerous if you have a large ego.

YOUNG AND FOOTLOOSE

Rates of youth unemployment

• The survey results show that with increase in education level, the unemployment rate is also increasing for all age groups

• Every one person out of three with a degree (graduation and above) is unemployed

• The Unemployment Rate is estimated to be 18.1, 13.0 and 13.3 per cent respectively for age groups 15-24, 18-29 and 15-29

• Based on the survey results, the majority of persons in the age group 15-29 years are either self employed or casual workers

• The unemployment rate is also increasing for all age groups

• In rural areas the unemployment rate among graduates and above for the age group 15-29 years is estimated to be 36.6 per cent whereas in urban areas it is 26.5 per cent

• The unemployment rate among the persons who can't read and write any language or are considered as “not literate” is lowest

Source: Report on Youth Employment-Unemployment Scenario 2012-13