With more than half the adult population likely to receive at least one vaccine dose by October and many residents naturally developing antibodies due to exposure to the virus, Jharkhand may develop herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2 by the time a potential third wave hits the state, health experts closely monitoring trends have said.

Jharkhand has so far vaccinated over 90 lakh residents against Covid-19, and if the immunisation drive continues at the same pace, then at least 1.5 crore of the 2.6 crore adults in the state would have the protection of at least one dose of vaccine by October, said Dr Ajay Kumar Singh, the state coordinator of Indian Medical Association (IMA).

“If the vaccination pace continues at the same pace, then we will have at least half the adult population protected against Covid-19. If Covid-appropriate behavior is followed and people are cautious, then the third wave may not even affect Jharkhand at all,” said Singh.

While Jharkhand has been strengthening the health infrastructure, especially focusing on the needs of children, the Indian Academy of Peadiatrics (IAP) has said that though children remain susceptible to infection, it was highly unlikely that the third wave will predominantly or exclusively affect children. It also said that there was no evidence to suggest that most children with Covid-19 infection will have severe disease in the third wave.

Dr. Prabhat Kumar, the coordinator of the Covid-19 task force at Rajendra Institute of Medical Sciences (RIMS), said that the severity of symptoms was also gradually dropping with a drop in cases in the state, and a third wave may not have a major impact if Covid protocols were followed. On Wednesday, only two Covid patients were undergoing treatment in the Covid ward of Jharkhand’s largest state-run hospital.

The fourth sero survey conducted by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) in June found that 61.2 per cent of the population surveyed in three districts of Jharkhand – Pakur, Latehar and Simdega – had Covid antibodies. As per ICMR, of the 1,231 people tested, 753 were found to have antibodies against Covid-19.

Dr Kumar, however, said that the government should continue with the current restrictions in order to avert a third wave. “Despite several citizens developing antibodies to fight the virus, Covid restrictions will have to be followed strictly in order to stop the virus from mutating any further and getting stronger,” he said.

There are no major festivals that may encourage mass gatherings in the state in the next two months, which may help Jharkhand keep cases under check, said Dr Singh of IMA. “We may also get vaccines for children soon, so the situation can be controlled,” he said.

As per government data, as many as 3,47,002 Jharkhand residents have been infected by the coronavirus so far and 5,125 of them could not survive. The state reported at least thrice as many cases in the second wave as in the first one.