This was a year of stupendous successes and fantastic failures. No prizes for concluding who came up trumps, Prime Minister Modi or his primary adversary, Rahul Gandhi. The stock markets zoomed, Byju's plummeted; lacklustre Bollywood was dwarfed by the South, while Indian cricket dropped a sitter of a World Cup. And the entertainment industry was puzzled by a falling Star. Here are 2023's ups and downs.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi PTI
Narendra Modi: The winner takes all
The results were not unexpected. Still when it came it surprised us with its scale. The mood has gone from ebullient to deep-in-the-trough gloom in barely two weeks in the Opposition ranks. Now Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the king of the walk once again. In fact, he never looked for a moment like he was about to be even edged slightly off his throne. Madhya Pradesh was the BJP’s and he ensured Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh fell in his pocket and stayed there. His challengers inside and outside the party have been vanquished. The 2024 Lok Sabha looks like a done deal. If there is one winner in 2023, it is Narendra Modi.
Representational picture Shutterstock
Winner: The stock market
Hong Kong has been the bustling home of Asia’s biggest stock market for as long as most people can remember. But it’s time to rewrite that story. Mumbai’s National Stock Exchange (NSE) has just muscled past it to claim the first spot. For now, it’s only ahead by a whisker but with China in the dumps there’s every chance the NSE could widen the lead and it is definitely one of 2023’s stars. So Mumbai’s market players are rushing out to snap up all the champagne that’s available. They hadn’t really expected to be celebrating on such a scale. The market’s been choppy most of the year and it’s been an edge-of-the-seat ride. But it suddenly broke free in September and started a rapid climb. On September 11, the NSE crossed the 20,000 mark and just 61 sessions later had shot past 21,000. That’s when the NSE claimed the crown as Asia’s largest market by market cap with its companies together worth $4.25 trillion. What’s more, retail investors are now pouring in almost $2 billion a month into the market. That even beats the $17 billion foreign investors have shovelled in.
Looking into election year 2024, there could be both upsides and downsides ahead. At one level, market valuations are stratospheric and companies like Varun Beverages are valued at 70 times PE. But a Modi election win, US rate cuts and small investor money could keep the champagne flowing well into 2024.
'Leo' film poster Instagram / @official_thalapathy
Winner: South Indian films
Once upon a time, there was Bollywood. It still exists but we really do not know how healthy it is. Today, Southern films routinely pull in Rs 200 crore or more. Bollywood possibly earns more but its films are also expensive to make. Also, in the post-Covid-19 era it has returned to the old themes and often the veteran stars.
In Kerala, the movie industry is punching its way forward in a different direction and is leading the way in creativity. One movie, Kaathal …The Core is about a married man who has concealed the fact that he is gay. The gay man is played by Mammooty, one of the industry’s top stars. The movie brought in audiences and also brought in good financial returns. The New York Times reckons the industry has somehow found, “commercial success for the kind of low-key films that are seen elsewhere as experimental.”
Kerala also has blockbusters like RDX, made with Rs 8 crore which has made over Rs 200 crore.
In the Tamil film industry, Leo, starring actor, dancer and singer Vijay, may have made Rs 620 crore and is either just ahead or neck-and-neck with Rajnikanth’s Jailer that raked in Rs 607 crore – the earnings can change with every passing day. And the Telugu film industry is coasting peacefully even without a blockbuster.
Bollywood’s RoI has been steadily going down in contrast.
Rahul Gandhi PTI
Loser: Rahul Gandhi
Do yatras work? It did for Gandhiji. It famously did for L.K. Advani. But, alas, for young Rahul? He not merely lost the state polls but lost them badly. The South, where the Congress has had some success, is not BJP country. Rahul Gandhi himself got elected from the South where he escaped after losing in the North. Year 2023 showed Congress's exit from most of the North. In 2024, he could emerge as a southern force with a victory in Kerala along with Karnataka which he already controls.
Rahul would like to forget 2023. But would he be allowed to do so?
Byju Raveendran File picture
Loser: Byju’s
What shoots up often comes down. India’s largest ed-tech company Byju’s was valued at $22 billion at its peak just last year. Now, one of its investors reckons it’s worth just $3 billion. Byju Raveendran is making a last ditch effort to pay salaries and keep his company afloat by mortgaging his homes and a luxury villa that’s under construction. He’ll be paying salaries with the homes that are reckoned to be worth Rs 100 crore. In addition, the BCCI that has taken him to court and wants him to be declared insolvent because Byju’s owes it Rs 158 crore for sponsoring the Indian team.
Raveendran was once the poster boy of the startup world. Venture capitalists were queuing up to put money in his firm. He spent billions to buy 13 companies like the US education firm Epic. Now he’s looking to sell Epic for $400 million. The company’s also laying off a humongous 4,000 people. Byju’s looks like a poor student right now that’ll either have to repeat the class or be expelled from the school.
File picture
Loser: Disney-Star
Once it was the star, the brightest jewel of Indian television. Now it’s beset by a host of troubles and uncertainties. Top of the list is that its owner, Disney, is itself on shaky ground (having fallen behind in the new world of OTT TV) trying hard to adjust itself to the digital world. If that isn’t bad enough, linear TV, which reaches us via satellite or cable, is being eclipsed by OTT TV which reaches us on the Internet. Star OTT betted on cricket and not on creating original content and has not succeeded in catching up to market leaders Amazon and Netflix.
And now it lost the rights to the IPL after Mukesh Ambani became a competitor and outbid it. Disney, in the US, is also facing a similar problem.
The icing on the cake are rumours that Disney may give up on Star India.
Indian cricket team PTI
Loser: Indian cricket
Did ever a cricket team flatter to deceive on such a scale? The Indian cricket team put up a flawless performance till the very end — and then collapsed almost as if they had given up after a few balls. Till then the batting had been superb and the bowling had struck terror in batsmen’s minds even before they played a stroke. And then, after a fly past and before an audience that expected a walkover, they just vanished — without a trace.
The last time Team India won a tournament worth speaking of was in 2013, the ICC Champions Trophy. And before that the Cricket World Cup twice (1983 and 2011[12]). The IPL has given India an undreamed of wealth but was this the price to pay? There’s a school of thought that believes Team India made money but sold its soul.
