Holding the hands of new allies for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena is expecting to win over a new set of voters in Maharashtra this poll season: Muslims and Dalits.

“Never before in Maharashtra have the Muslims and the Dalits voted for the Shiv Sena,” said Harshal Pradhan, Shiv Sena (UBT) spokesperson. “We believe our allies, the Congress and Sharad Pawar’s NCP will help us get the votes from these sections. Plus, people from all communities have seen Uddhav saheb’s performance as chief minister, especially during the Covid pandemic.”

This is the first time in Maharashtra, which has the second highest number of Lok Sabha seats (48) after Uttar Pradesh (80), where the Shiv Sena (a truncated one) is facing voters in an alliance with the Congress and the Sharad Pawar-led Nationalist Congress party (which also faced defection).

The Muslim vote in Maharashtra is estimated to be around 10 per cent, while the Dalits are at 37 per cent and the Marathas (agitating for reservation) comprise 23 per cent.

On Tuesday, the Mahavikas Aghadi (MVA) leaders --- Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray and Nana Patole, the state Congress chief Nana Patole -- together announced a seat-sharing formula that the three parties have agreed upon after several rounds of talks amidst threats of derailments.

The Shiv Sena (UBT) will contest from 21 seats, the Congress gets 17 and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP ten.The biggest challenge now for the leaders and workers of all the parties will be to ensure a smooth transfer of votes, of which the Shiv Sena (UBT) is more confident than the Congress.

In 2019, the still undivided Shiv Sena contested the polls along with the BJP (they had been in alliance since 1989 till a break just before the 2014 Lok Sabha polls), and the two won 41 (BJP 23 out of the 25 seats it contested and Shiv Sena 18 of the 23) out of the 48 seats, with a vote share of 27.84 per cent and 23.5 per cent respectively.

Five years later only the BJP and the Congress (which got 16.41 per cent of the votes and could manage to win only one seat) have a clearly determined vote bank.

While the calculations of the Muslim and Dalit votes for the Congress could be correct, there is no way to predict whether the Maratha votes will remain with Sharad Pawar or have moved to his nephew and Maharashtra deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar. Similarly, the Sena which counted the Konkan belt among its stronghold cannot know whether the voters have decided to stay with Uddhav Thackeray or move to the chief minister, Eknath Shinde’s side.

Pradhan insists voters are firmly with the Thackeray scion. “There is resentment about the manner in which the Shiv Sena was split and Uddhav Thackeray removed from the chief minister’s chair. We believe it will work in our favour,” said the Sena (UBT) spokesman.

Congress leaders are also confident that a transfer of votes will take place between the two ex-rivals. “In 80 per cent of the seats, there will be transfer of votes. More from the Sainiks (as the Shiv Sena workers are referred to) than our side,” said a Mumbai Congress leader.

Discussions on the seat-adjustment were delayed over four seats on which all the three parties staked claim. In the end, the Congress gave up its claims on the seats of Mumbai South Central, Mumbai North West, Sangli and Bhiwandi.

“There was near unanimity in 44 seats. Only in four we had some trouble. The high command decided to give up the seats for a larger cause, to ensure the defeat of the BJP,” said a senior Congress leader. Shiv Sena (UBT) and the NCP (SP) will contest the seats of Sangli and Bhiwandi.

While the Thackeray-led Sena held the 2019 Lok Sabha poll results, when the Congress won only one seat, as the bench mark for the division of seats, the Congress reminded the ally that most of its MPs and MLAs had switched camps following the split in the party in 2023.

“At the end of the day, the only other option that we had was to go it alone. It would have been an exorbitant price to pay for just four seats,” the Congress leader said.

A Shiv Sena (UBT) leader said the Congress’ claim on Bhiwandi and Sangli did not make sense as the party failed to win in both 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha seats.

“We have also given up the claim on Ramtek and Kolhapur. Everyone understands that we have to ignore these minor differences and come together to fight the polls against the BJP,” the Shiv Sena (UBT) leader said. Elections to the state Assembly are also due for later this year and the MVA partners are aware that a poor showing will demoralise workers of all the parties and further weaken the parties.

Congress leaders in Mumbai are aware that on their own they stand little chance from any of the seats in Mumbai. In 2019, from the Mumbai North (which has again fallen into its kitty this time), the party nominee, actor Urmila Matondkar, received only 2,41,431 votes against the 7,06,678 votes polled by the BJP’s sitting MLA, Gopal Shetty.

“What chance do we stand in these seats? In North Central (where the late Sunil Dutt’s daughter Priya had won in the past), there is a slight chance. It will all depend how far the Shiv Sena (UBT) is able to secure its votes against the Shinde faction,” he said.

The Opposition alliance is also hopeful that the bickering between the BJP and the Maharashtra chief minister Shinde would have an impact in the rank and file of the Sainiks who opted to align with the chief minister. BJP leader and deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis had to step in and announce the name of the sitting Kalyan MP and chief minister Shinde's son, Shrikant, as the candidate from the seat, which a section of the BJP wanted to claim as its own.

"The BJP is deciding who will be the candidates for both Shinde and Ajit Pawar. We hope the supporters of the two can see how low these two have fallen for the sake of power," said a Shiv Sena (UBT) leader.

While all the three had started campaigning in the seats that they had announced, following the joint declaration on Tuesday, plans for joint campaigns are being drawn up.

Maharashtra will go to polls in five phases on April 19 and 26 and May 7, 13 and 20.