If July is the month of the monsoon woes in Mumbai, June is one of political thunderstorms.

Politics in Maharashtra underwent a sea change in June two years ago when the Maha Vikas Aghadi government led by Shiv Sena scion Uddhav Thackeray with former foes the Congress and the then undivided Nationalist Congress Party was toppled, outsmarted by Union home minister Amit Shah and former chief minister Devendra Fadnavis.

Two years later, Fadnavis is on the backfoot as the MVA has made a strong comeback in the Lok Sabha elections, trumping the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance.

As the clock ticks to Assembly elections later in the year, there is speculation that both alliances – the ruling Mahayuti and the Opposition MVA – could change. And if that happens, there could be national repercussions.

Maharashtra and Haryana are the two states that will go to polls around October, the first states after Narendra Modi, for the first time dependent on partners in the National Democratic Alliance, took oath as prime minister last Sunday.

After Lok Sabha success, can Opposition stay united?

The MVA bagged 30 of Maharashtra’s 48 Lok Sabha seats and the Sangli MP has already said he will support the Congress. The BJP-led Mahayuti could manage only 17. From the 23 in 2019, the BJP could manage only nine this time. Shinde’s Shiv Sena got seven and Ajit Pawar’s NCP won only one seat – though both factions had the original name and symbol.

Sharad Pawar, the veteran warhorse, successfully defended his home turf, Baramati, against his nephew Ajit with his daughter, Supriya Sule, defeating Ajit’s wife, Sunetra Pawar, in the Lok Sabha election. Pawar Senior has already announced that the MVA is now focused on removing the BJP from power in Maharashtra.

“Our direction is right,” Sharad Pawar had said on June 4 after the Lok Sabha results stunned exit pollsters.

“People want change. We will keep fighting against the state government’s anti-people policies. We are sure the people will support us in the Assembly election too.”

The Maharashtra Congress, with 13 of the 18 it contested in its pocket, is currently leader in the pack. Sources in the party said it is ready to play second or even third fiddle to both Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar.

What are Uddhav Thackeray’s plans?

Speculation about Uddhav Thackeray’s political roadmap is already making headlines. Latest reports from Maharashtra say he has told his party to be ready in all 288 Assembly segments of the state.

In the Lok Sabha elections, Uddhav’s party won only nine of the 21 seats it contested. His Shiv Sena (UBT) bagged three of the four Mumbai seats and narrowly lost the Mumbai North West by a mere 48 votes. The Shiv Sena-UBT nominee, Amol Kirtikar, has decided to challenge the poll results in court.

The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance is trying to feed fuel.

"Uddhav Thackeray's health was not in good condition, still he took a lot of efforts. I was worried about his health. However, the outcome indicates that NCP (SP) and Congress benefitted more from his efforts than his own party,” BJP leader Chandrakant Patil was quoted by PTI as having said on Tuesday.

"When Thackeray was with BJP, his party had won 18 Lok Sabha seats. With Congress and NCP (SP), he ended up winning nine seats. He needs to introspect," Patil added.

Congress leaders in Maharashtra dismissed any talk of the MVA being in any danger.

“That the Muslims voted for Uddhav Thackeray’s party and the Marathi Manoos for the Congress in Mumbai has rattled the BJP. This was something they did not imagine,” said a Congress leader from Mumbai.

For now, it does not appear that the Congress would try to upset Uddhav and would rather go to polls with him as the chief minister face of the MVA.

“If you ask me personally I feel as soon as the Assembly polls are announced Uddhav should be declared the chief minister face. He still carries a lot of sympathy for the manner in which he was removed,” said a former Congress MP.

Formulae at play in MVA alliance

The Congress and NCP have never before contested Assembly polls with the Shiv Sena, in its original form or truncated.

“We and the Nationalist Congress Party (Sharad Pawar) have contested in the past and we have a fair idea on the division of constituencies. Accommodating the Shiv Sena is going to be the challenge,” said a Congress leader from Mumbai.

One of the formulae being considered is sticking to the status quo of the 2019 Assembly elections. The undivided Shiv Sena and the NCP had won 56 seats and 54 seats respectively, while the Congress bagged 44.

The understanding at the moment is that there would be hard bargaining with each side eyeing a larger share of the pie in the 288-seat Assembly.

“Maybe in 60 per cent of the seats there will be no problem, but the rest would not be easy,” admitted a Congress leader.

There is also a possibility that smaller but influential outfits – like Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi, which floundered badly – could veer towards the MVA as the Assembly polls approach.

“The MVA constituents realise that they have found a new vote base. For some of them, like the Congress, their old voters have returned to the fold. These are all encouraging signs and the MVA would like to go ahead with the momentum,” said a Nagpur-based political observer.

NDA brainstorms amid question about Ajit Pawar

On June 14, the BJP has called all its district unit chiefs and office-bearers to Mumbai for a brainstorming session to identify what went wrong in the Lok Sabha election. Deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis, state BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankhule and Mumbai BJP chief Ashish Selar will be the main speakers.

There is speculation about Ajit Pawar’s NCP’s future in the Mahayuti.

“Political realignments in the form of many leaders returning to Uddhav Thackeray’s and Sharad Pawar’s Sena and NCP factions, respectively, could happen ahead of the Assembly polls,” a BJP leader told The Telegraph.

How Maharashtra’s politics has changed

Some of the events that transpired during the Lok Sabha polls were never witnessed before in Maharashtra. Like the OBCs, the Mahars and the Muslims coming on the same page in the Vidarbha region. The Congress and MVA partners won seven of the 10 seats In Vidarbha, ending the BJP’s decade-long dominance.

In Marathwada, a similar configuration was observed between the Muslims, Marathas and Mahars. For historic reasons that date back to the rule of the Nizams, the Muslims and Marathas have never voted together. Of the eight seats in Marathwada, seven went to the MVA, while the BJP could manage only one.

The 46 seats in Marathwada would be crucial in the next Assembly polls. The MVA seems to be holding the cards.

In 2019, the BJP had won 16 of the Assemblies, with 12 going to the undivided Shiv Sena, eight each to the Congress and the undivided NCP, while two went to others.