Hindutva versus economic issues will be the dominant narrative in the upcoming Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh and the BJP is keen to see if Hindutva alone can help the party retain the state.
Party insiders said preliminary feedback from the ground had shown anger among large sections of voters because of a rise in the prices of essential commodities, joblessness and farm distress after the devastation caused by the second wave of Covid-19.
“Our initial survey has shown that the voters in general are distressed because of various reasons. But so far, that doesn’t mean they will vote to defeat us,” a BJP leader involved in managing the polls said.
“This election in many ways will be a test case. It will bring out the strength of our Hindutva and nationalist ideology,” the leader added, hoping voters would be willing to bear some economic hardships to back the saffron party.
He said their findings had shown that despite having complaints against the Yogi Adityanath government, the people were not ready to bring the Samajwadi Party or the Bahujan Samaj Party to power.
Party leaders said after Gujarat under then chief minister Narendra Modi, Uttar Pradesh under Adityanath was the new Hindutva laboratory and the poll results would prove whether the aggressive line being pushed by the party was successful.
“Yogi Adityanath’s image as a firm Hindutva ruler and an incorruptible leader is very popular among the people. Voters will think twice before deciding to defeat him,” a minister in the Uttar Pradesh government said.
The saffron-clad chief minister is known for his strident divisive policies.
Party managers feel the ongoing construction of a grand temple at Ayodhya would also help the party tide over misgivings over price rise and joblessness.
Besides Hindutva, the party has launched a massive campaign to woo the OBCs, claiming that the Modi government at the Centre and Adityanath in the state were devoted to the welfare of the deprived sections.
Some party MLAs feel that the outreach may not cut much ice as Adityanath has been accused of promoting the dominance of upper caste Rajputs/Thakurs.
“The OBC community has been very badly hit by price rise and lack of jobs. People in my constituency are complaining that they have got gas connections under the Ujjwala scheme, but don’t have the money to buy cylinders that are getting costlier,” an OBC legislator from eastern Uttar Pradesh said.
Internally, party leaders said the anger among voters was mainly concentrated in western Uttar Pradesh, the centre of the farmers’ protest against the three farm laws.
“The ground situation here is very bad for the party,” a BJP MP from western Uttar Pradesh said.
“There is only one big thing in favour of Yogiji. People are happy with the law and order situation,” the MP added, but felt this may not be enough to make people vote for the BJP.
The Adityanath government has been credited for cracking down on criminals through encounter killings and ending the “goonda-raj” under the Samajwadi government, party leaders said.
Party managers in Delhi said they were closely following the voices of voters on various TV channels and news portals and monitoring the situation, particularly in western Uttar Pradesh.
“The farmers’ agitation is the major reason behind the anger against the government in western UP. But this is limited to only big farmers,” a BJP leader said.
The BJP believes that only the agrarian Jat community is angry and hopes they will suffer only limited electoral loss in the region.
BJP MPs and MLAs from western Uttar Pradesh and even some from the central and eastern regions of the state feel the party leadership could be underestimating the anger among voters.
“The leadership feels Hindutva will dominate the minds of the voters, but on the ground we come across scores of people who say the Ram temple will not give them food and jobs,” a party MP said.
