The Swadeshi Jagran Manch (SJM) on Wednesday expressed concern over “fast declining” total fertility rate and called upon everyone, including the government, to look into the issue, saying it may cause “dangerous imbalance” in the population and slow down country’s growth.

It noted that Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) chief Mohan Bhagwat also raised the issue recently and said concerns expressed by him over the declining total fertility rate (TFR) should be taken “seriously”.

The SJM is an affiliate of the RSS.

“The Swadeshi Jagran Manch expresses its deep concern over fast declining total fertility rate (TFR), which means the number of babies an average woman aged 15-49 bears over her lifetime, and its likely impact on future growth of population and on the existence of our society,” the organisation’s co-convenor Ashwani Mahajan said in statement. He said the SJM had passed a resolution in this regard in its national council meeting held in Lucknow in June, expressing concerns over the declining TFR.

“The Manch calls upon people of Bharat in general and opinion makers, policy analysts, policy makers and the government in particular to delve upon this issue of declining TFR to less than replacement level, endangering the existence of the society in the long run,” Mahajan said.

“We need to come clear that today the problem faced by the Indian economy is to maintain its population so that our development efforts don’t face any hurdle. We must understand that if we fail to rise to the occasion, it may cause a dangerous imbalance in the population in the form of raising the dependency burden, slowing down our growth,” he added.

Mahajan noted that the RSS chief has also expressed concern over the fall in the TFR below 2.0.

“It’s notable that the Lancet in its latest publication had reported that India's TFR came down to 1.91 by 2021. Further, Lancet’s study has projected that by 2050, the TFR may fall to 1.29,” he said.

Mahajan said that a TFR of 2.1 is considered replacement-level fertility which means that a woman having two children replaces herself and her partner with two new lives.

It ensures that each generation replaces itself, he added.

“We need to take this warning seriously as Sarsangh Chalak Ji has said that the decline in TFR to less than the replacement rate means that with this, the societies cease to exist, without anyone destroying them. Therefore, the society is faced with the danger of extinction in the long run, which is a cause of major worry and he has said that the TFR shouldn’t in any case fall below 2.1,” Mahajan added.

The SJM co-convenor said many developed countries have been facing contraction in their population with constantly declining and low TFR.

“TFR has fallen much below the replacement level of 2.1 in South Korea, Japan, Germany etc, threatening their very existence,” he said, adding, “Bharat must learn from these countries and take remedial measures to reverse the declining trend.”

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