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regular-article-logo Monday, 01 July 2024

Stock market surge, exit polls, Rahul Gandhi's questions: Who knew what, when?

Analysts questioned why market watchdog Sebi did not step in when the PM and the home minister made market-moving statements in the run-up to the elections results being announced; others asked why counting had not been scheduled for Monday when all seven rounds of voting had been completed on Saturday evening

Paran Balakrishnan Published 07.06.24, 01:14 PM

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Unlucky investors lost their shirts when they piled into the Indian stock market on the back of wildly wrong exit polls forecasting a massive BJP election win. Now, Rahul Gandhi is asking why Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah were talking up the stock market in the run-up to the election results being announced, urging people to buy shares?

Key Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has made the very serious allegation that Tuesday's stock market crash was "the Indian stock market’s biggest-ever scam.” He accused Modi, Shah and Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman of causing investors to lose nearly Rs 31 crore when the market soared stratospherically on expectations of a landslide BJP victory – and then cratered.

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The market surged by 2,778 points on Monday pushed by the promise of a huge BJP win, then fell steeply the next day when the actual results came in.

“We are absolutely convinced that this is a scam,” Rahul told a jammed press conference Thursday. “Somebody has made thousands of crores of rupees at the cost of Indian retail investors, and the prime minister and the union home minister have given an indication to buy. So we demand a joint parliamentary committee to investigate this.” he said.

Rahul’s press conference was an indication of how the Opposition is now willing to go on the offensive and attack the government. “The prime minister told people three or four times that the market will climb quickly. The home minister directly told people that the stock market would soar skyward and they should buy on June 4,” Rahul told the press conference. “The finance minister gave the same message,” he added.

Rahul went to allege that: “People very high up in the BJP have carried out this scam. They had partners who carried out these exit polls.” He demanded to know why Modi and Shah had been “giving specific investment advice” and asked, “Is it their job to give investment advice to the people.”

Gandhi claimed that BJP leaders knew that the party was not going to win more than 220 seats but the exit polls were manipulated to show that it was winning with a huge majority. “We’d like to know if these polls were actually carried out, what was the methodology of the polls and who are these investors,” said Rahul.

BJP Leader Piyush Goyal rejected Rahul’s allegations as “absurd” and accused the Congress leader of “misleading people.” Noting the stock market’s smashing growth during the BJP’s rule, he said “Modi-ji has assured the country that in his third term the country will becomed the third largest economy of the world.”

Pollsters whose forecasts were incorrect this time round have blamed the problem on limited budgets and difficulties with sample sizes in a country with 1.4 billion people.

The stock market boom on Monday became inevitable after nearly all the top exit polls on Saturday evening predicted that the BJP and its allies would score a huge victory and get between 360 and the 400 seats while the Congress-led India bloc would win just 109 to 139 seats. The elections results released the following day showed the BJP alliance snaring only 293 seats while the INDIA bloc captured 232.

Analysts questioned why market watchdog Sebi did not order the prime minister and the home minister to stop making market-moving statements in the run-up to the elections results being announced.

“I can say with confidence that on June 4, as BJP hits record numbers, the stock market will also hit new record highs,” Modi told The Economic Times. Shah echoed his boss’ words, saying: “I suggest that you buy (shares) before June 4. It will shoot up,”

“Quite interestingly this has never happened before that the PM has commented on the stock market,” observed Rahul. “For first time we noted that during polls, Prime Minister Modi, home minister Shah, (and) finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman commented on the stock market."

Political observers said they were shocked the Election Commission had not attempted to rein in the government’s advice to Indians to buy shares. Others asked why counting had not been scheduled for Monday, since the seven rounds of polling had been completed on Saturday evening. As a result, investors had a chance to make purchases on Monday before the election results were announced on Tuesday.

The market soared almost from the moment it opened with Adani group stocks climbing by around 16 per cent at one point. The top gainers were Adani Ports and Adani Enterprises. A score of other stocks including M&M, SBI and NTPC hit 52-week highs.

"What is the connection between the BJP, the fake exit pollsters and the dubious foreign investors who invested one day before the exit polls were announced and made a huge profit at the cost of five crore salaries?” said Rahul.

Rahul sternly told the press conference: “Someone has made thousands of crores of rupees at the cost of Indian retail investors – and this is a criminal act.”

Rahul also pointed a finger at Finance MInister Sitharaman who told a news channel a few days ago: “If there is a good result coming for the BJP it indicates stability….and that will mean a good message for the stock market and therefore it can really go up. It will be a solid bull’s market.”

The markets went into reverse gear almost immediately on Tuesday after counting started and it became evident very quickly that the BJP would not score the smashing victory polls had predicted. Charged Rahul: “Whoever has made money has made money as the stock market rose and also as it crashed.”

Rahul Gandhi’s press conference was an indication of how the Opposition is now willing to go on the offensive and attack the government. “The prime minister told people three or four times that the market will climb quickly. The home minister directly told people that the stock market would soar skyward and they should buy on June 4,” Rahul told the press conference. “The finance minister gave the same message,” he added.

The Congress leader showed reporters a chart which indicated the precise dates on which Modi and Shah had made stock market-related statements. On May 19, Modi said: “Stock markets will break all records on June 4.” But on June 4, the stock market went underground,” Gandhi said.

He pointed to a chart which showed that stock transactions doubled on May 31 over the activity on the few days before. “Massive stock activity. – these were people who knew that there was some mischief going on. Investors, including foreign investors, poured thousands of crores into the market. Then, on June 4, retail investors suffered a loss of Rs 30 lakh crore,” he said.

“Why did the prime minister and home minister give specific advice to the 5 crore people investing in the stock market?,” asked Rahul.

The stock market ralled to some extent on Thursday, climbing 692 points, after market players sensed an opportunity on the possibility that the market might be oversold.

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