Former Congress president and head of India’s most durable political clan, Sonia Gandhi, has decided to forsake the Rae Bareli Lok Sabha contest and opt for a seat in the Upper House from Rajasthan.

This could be an epochal moment for it may well be that Rae Bareli and Amethi, the pocket-borough seats of the Nehru-Gandhis, will no longer be represented by the family in the Lok Sabha.

There is speculation that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra may contest the coming Lok Sabha polls from either of the two seats, but there’s no firm word on that yet. One senior Congress leader from Uttar Pradesh told The Telegraph: “We knew Priyankaji will contest this time but there is confusion about which seat. The family certainly cannot abandon Amethi and Rae Bareli.”

The 77-year-old Sonia, who filed her nomination for the Rajya Sabha from Rajasthan on Wednesday, won from Amethi or Rae Bareli six consecutive times since 1999. The Congress has enough cushion in the Rajasthan Assembly to afford Sonia a comfortable ride to the Rajya Sabha.

Sonia quit as Congress president in 2018 and handed over the reins to Rahul Gandhi, who resigned after the party’s defeat in 2019. Though reluctant and impeded by ill health, Sonia was forced to take charge as acting president of the party until Mallikarjun Kharge was elected in October 2022.

There has been constant speculation over the possibility of Sonia “retiring” from active politics because of poor health, but with her decision to move to the Rajya Sabha, she has clearly decided to override any talk of retreat from politics at this critical juncture when the Congress is passing through its most difficult crisis.

Sonia, who first won both Bellary in Karnataka and Amethi in Uttar Pradesh on her electoral debut in 1999, shifted to Rae Bareli in 2004 to vacate Amethi for Rahul.

Some party leaders are of the opinion that Sonia must not opt for the Rajya Sabha as she is such a valuable and symbolic asset for the party and the Opposition in the Lok Sabha. They also argued that she could win from any constituency in five or six states.

But Sonia herself was wary of the rough and tumble of mass politics at this age. While Rahul lost from Amethi in 2019 and is an MP from Wayanad in Kerala, there is a strong possibility of his return to the family pocket borough as his absence from Uttar Pradesh will send a wrong signal to the voters. There is even speculation about Varun Gandhi joining the party to bolster the prospects of the party in Uttar Pradesh.

Telangana and Karnataka were also keen to send Sonia to the Rajya Sabha but the party did not want to deepen the message that the family was vacating the political space in the Hindi heartland. Congress treasurer Ajay Maken has now been nominated from Karnataka, along with local leaders Syed Nasser Hussain and G.C. Chandrasekhar. While Ashok Singh, the senior leader from Gwalior, has been nominated from Madhya Pradesh, Akhilesh Prasad Singh has been re-nominated from Bihar.

Top lawyer Abhishek Singhvi, who was in the Rajya Sabha from Bengal, has now been re-nominated from Himachal Pradesh where the Congress has won power recently. This will be Singhvi’s fourth term in the Rajya Sabha.

From Telangana, veteran Renuka Chowdhury and state Youth Congress president Anil Kumar Yadav got the ticket while Chandrakant Handore will come from Maharashtra. Maken opting for the Rajya Sabha sends out a grim signal on how the party views its prospects in Delhi; Maken was arguably the strongest Congress candidate for the Lok Sabha from the capital. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has given clear signals that it doesn’t want any alliance with the Congress either in Delhi or Punjab.

While both the parties agreed to fight separately in Punjab, a four-three deal was on the cards in Delhi. But the AAP on Tuesday said the Congress does not have any strength in Delhi and one seat should be good enough. The Congress is not going to settle for one seat and the division of anti-BJP votes now appears unavoidable. Maken’s eagerness to take the Rajya Sabha option has again exposed the Congress’s lack of confidence in Delhi.