On paper, the contest in the twin constituencies of Jammu and Udhampur is between the BJP and the Congress. But the real battle is more between the BJP and Chaudhary Lal Singh, the former Congress MP-turned-BJP rebel who is threatening to make the going tough for his erstwhile party’s sitting MPs.

Singh was forced to resign as Jammu & Kashmir forest minister after he allegedly expressed support for the accused in the rape and murder of an eight-year-old Bakerwal girl in Kathua last year.

The shocking incident had snowballed into a communal controversy since the child was Muslim — her family belongs to the nomadic Bakerwal community — and the accused Hindu.

The incident and its aftermath, however, prompted Lal Singh to revolt against his party which had sidelined him — he now threatens to upset the BJP’s poll math in Jammu and Udhampur (under which Rasana falls) by fighting as an Independent from both places.

The maverick politician, who had a decades-long association with the Congress before he joined the BJP in 2014, has floated an “apolitical” Dogra Swabhiman Sangathan to fight for the rights of the Dogras, who are Hindus and a majority in Jammu.

The BJP has repeated its MPs, Jitendra Singh from Udhampur and Jugal Kishore from Jammu.

Deepika Singh Rajawat, the former counsel of the murdered child’s family, believes there is still substantial support in favour of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the two constituencies. But she also thinks there is a positive trend in favour of Lal Singh.

“He (Lal Singh) has the support and that support is visible. They have lot of followers, a lot of people join his rallies…. It will certainly divide (the) BJP vote but (the) Modi factor is still working. (Many) people have no regard for (local BJP) MPs but wiIl vote for Modi,” Deepika told The Telegraph.

Jammu lawyer Sheikh Shakeel Ahmad said the BJP could be in trouble in Udhampur but should win in Jammu.

“Lal Singh generated a lot of support during (the) Rasana (rape incident) but we don’t see much impact in the elections. The support for him is more pronounced in Kathua district and that is not good for Jitendra Singh (the BJP MP from Udhampur of which Kathua is a part). Otherwise also, many people are not happy with him (Jitendra),” Ahmad said.

The Congress can seek solace in the fact that the PDP has not fielded any candidate as a goodwill gesture towards it. This might help in consolidation of the Muslim vote in its favour. But a lot will depend on how many Hindu votes go to the Congress and how much dent Lal Singh causes to the BJP’s vote share.

Jammu votes on April 11 and Udhampur on April 18