A private weather forecasting company on Monday claimed that its preliminary forecast for the 2019 monsoon suggests an over 50 per cent chance of “normal monsoon,” saying it will release a detailed forecast after March 15.

Skymet said it “expects over 50 per cent chances of the upcoming monsoon to be normal,” saying this “preliminary forecast guidance” is based on certain “precursors” that may be used to gauge the health of the monsoon.

Senior India Meteorological Department (IMD) officials declined to comment on the significance of the Skymet forecast. The IMD itself typically releases its preliminary monsoon forecast in early April. “The monsoon is an evolving system every year — we need to track multiple parameters through the next several weeks to make our forecast,” a senior IMD scientist told The Telegraph.

In its preliminary forecast, Skymet said its analysis suggests that the parameter called El Nino, linked to the sea surface temperatures of the Pacific ocean, is showing a “consistent drop.”

“Going by early indications, this is going to be a devolving El Nino year. This trend would surely not lead to a drought but bountiful rains as said excess rainfall are also ruled out,” Skymet said in a statement on its website.

“The probability of El Nino is falling. This will reduce to about 50 per cent by the time the monsoon arrives with a gradual decline thereafter as well,” Jatin Singh, managing director of Skymet, said.

IMD scientists say its long-range forecast of the monsoon relies on El Nino as well as several other parameters.