A barely veiled look-to-China nudge from Bangladesh premier Sheikh Hasina has prompted Prime Minister Narendra Modi to fast-track an India-led initiative on “conservation and management” of the Teesta river system.

“An Indian technical team will soon visit Dhaka for talks on the conservation and management of Teesta,” said Modi during a joint media briefing with Hasina, during which he also spoke about the decision to start negotiations for the renewal of the Ganga Water Treaty of 1996, which is valid till 2026.

The move came 10 days after Hasina told her parliament that she was looking at a Chinese proposal on restoration and management of the Teesta.

Some sources in Dhaka, however, underlined New Delhi’s failure to mention anything about sharing the Teesta’s waters — a crucial economic and political issue in Bangladesh that has been hanging fire for over a decade.

Ainun Nishat, a water resource and climate change specialist in Bangladesh, said New Delhi’s proposal ran the risk of being looked at as a “time-killing tactic by India”.

“The approach of sending a study team will be looked at with suspicion here unless they adopt a two-pronged approach, in which they first offer an interim arrangement (on water-sharing) and then go on to discussions about the restoration and management of the river,” Nishat said.

“As a lower riparian country, Bangladesh has a legitimate demand on the Teesta’s waters, irrespective of the volume of water. Unless an interim arrangement on sharing is done, the proposal of the study team will be considered a time-killing tactic by India.”

Modi on Saturday also spoke about starting negotiations to renew the Ganga Water Treaty of 1996, which is valid till 2026. He announced a decision to issue e-visas to Bangladeshis visiting India for medical treatment.

But it’s India’s plans for the Teesta, the fourth-largest among the 54 transboundary rivers the two countries share, that drew all the attention, particularly with the Hasina government waiting since September 2011 for an agreement on sharing the river’s waters.

Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee had put a last-minute spanner in the works just as a water-sharing deal was about to be signed during a Dhaka visit by then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

Dhaka says the failure to seal a deal has been costly, with about 50,000 hectares of land on the Teesta’s banks in northwest Bangladesh remaining unused for cultivation in the dry season because of water scarcity.

Against this backdrop, Beijing had emerged as a white knight for Hasina, proposing a multipurpose Teesta river management project around four years ago. The $1-billion project involves dredging, building reservoirs, laying a drainage system along the river, and constructing embankments and satellite cities on both banks.

A lobby in the ruling Awami League is keen on the Chinese proposal and some negotiations have taken place. But Hasina, known for her pro-India positions on many issues, has averred in public that she is hopeful about New Delhi finding a solution to the Teesta water-sharing impasse.

However, in an indication that she may be running out of patience, she told the Bangladesh parliament last week that the economic relations division committee, responsible for mobilising foreign funds, would talk to Chinese authorities to fund the project on easier terms.

“The Indian proposal on a technical team visiting Bangladesh to study the conservation and management of the Teesta lacks specifics,” a source in Dhaka said, asking not to be identified.

“I think this is a hurried response to our Prime Minister’s comments on exploring the Chinese option, which has been with us for the last few years.”

Indeed, Indian foreign secretary Vinay Kwatra didn't offer any specifics at his media interaction later in the day. Although he stressed that the management of shared water resources was a "crucial and sensitive matter" and that the two leaders had discussed how the Teesta’s conservation needed a "fair degree of technical management", he didn't commit to water-sharing.

"It’s less about water-sharing per se, it’s more about the management of the water flows within the Teesta river," Kwatra said.

Multiple sources in Dhaka’s ruling establishment told this newspaper they appreciated Modi's mention of the Teesta, which has been an elephant in the room during official-level meetings for the last decade or so. However, they added, the absence of any mention of "water-sharing" would further compound the Awami League government’s problems.

Hasina had swept to power earlier this year for a fourth consecutive term, but her government’s popularity has been in question for several reasons, from the country's economic hardships to a perception that she has failed to get Bangladesh its dues from India.

A sizeable faction in the Awami League, including some people close to Hasina, wants her to engage more with China. She cannot sit on Beijing's proposal for long, a source said.

"She will be visiting China in three weeks.... You can't rule out the possibility that India tossed up this proposal to reduce the chances of her handing over the Teesta project to China," the source said.

India is desperate to prevent the Teesta’s management going into Chinese hands, for that will not only signal a failure of hydro-diplomacy with its most trusted neighbour but also carry major strategic concerns.

If Dhaka plays ball with Beijing, it will result in Chinese presence within 100km of the India-Bangladesh border, close to the Chicken’s Neck, the narrow strip of land in north Bengal that connects the Northeast with the rest of India.

A source suggested the China angle may have influenced not just the Indian announcement on the Teesta but the timing of Hasina’s visit itself.

"This bilateral visit was due, but there was a buzz that it would get deferred by a few months as our Prime Minister had visited India for the swearing-in of Modiji, which took place on June 9,” a source in Dhaka said.

“Things changed in the last seven or eight days, and the dates (for the visit) were finalised within 48 hours of her comments in Parliament."

The source wondered whether New Delhi wanted to steal a march on Beijing by hosting Hasina before her China visit.

Questions on whether Hasina's upcoming China visit had featured in the bilateral talks did come up during Kwatra's media interaction.

"The discussions centred on the bilateral cooperation between the two countries and how it can be expanded.... The focus was on how to reduce the challenges, not on any third country," he replied.

Shared vision

A “shared vision” for peace, prosperity and development of the two neighbours and the entire region, driven by connectivity, commerce and collaboration, was billed by both India and Bangladesh as the major takeaway from the bilateral meeting.

The two Prime Ministers held extensive talks to expand the scope of cooperation in bilateral trade and connectivity besides inking agreements for a green partnership, digital partnership and cooperation in the blue economy and space research.