The Kerala political landscape is set for a realignment with the Nationalist Congress Party divided on whether to stay with the ruling Left Democratic Front or switch sides to the Opposition coalition led by the Congress.
The simmering differences within the NCP headed by Sharad Pawar came to the fore when it became clear that it would not get the contentious Pala Assembly seat in the upcoming Kerala elections. With the Kerala Congress (Mani) led by Jose K. Mani having switched to the LDF in October 2020, and Pala being the traditional hub of the party originally formed by Jose’s father K.M. Mani, it was expected to cause a rift within the ruling front since the seat is now held by the NCP. A section led by NCP state president T.P. Peethambaran Master and Mani C. Kappan has made it clear that they would not settle for anything less than the Pala seat that the party snatched from the UDF in the 2019 bypoll following K.M. Mani’s death.
The historic win for the LDF ended the five-decade reign of the Kerala Congress (Mani) that was then a part of the UDF. But after Jose made the move to the LDF, it became immediately evident that he wanted the Pala seat that his father had nurtured for five decades.
Chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan recently informed the NCP leadership that Pala would not be available this time and instead offered the Kuttanad Assembly seat to the party.
But the NCP itself is divided on whether to leave the ruling front that is forecast to win a second consecutive term.
A faction led by transport minister A.K. Saseendran, who is most likely to stay back by splitting the party, has complained to Pawar about Kappan openly claiming he would contest only from Pala.
“Neither the central unit nor the state unit of the NCP has so far held any discussions on leaving the LDF,” Saseendran told reporters on Thursday, making it clear which side he preferred.
But Peethambaran and Kappan are in Delhi to hold the final round of discussions with Pawar and Praful Patel, who is in charge of the Kerala unit, and arrive at a decision on Friday.
Kappan has no doubt about where he would contest from. “I have already said I will contest from Pala,” he told a news channel.
Asked by a news channel what would he do as the LDF has already spoken the last word on Pala, Kappan quipped, indicating at a shift away from the ruling front: “You just have to guess.”
In another sign that the NCP was headed for a split, posters featuring images of Kappan have appeared across Pala, welcoming the pre-poll “Aishwarya Kerala Yatra” of Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala. There is also talk that Kappan would participate in the march once it reaches Pala, the hub of central Kerala’s Christian community.
“We expect the NCP to take a call (on whether it would leave the LDF). We welcome him (Kappan) to join us,” Chennithala told reporters on Thursday, adding “there is nothing wrong if he wants to join the yatra”.
State Congress president Mullapally Ramachandran also invited the NCP faction to join the alliance. “I welcome Kappan to the UDF. We can give him our ‘hand’ symbol if he joins us,” he said.
While the NCP is not a major player in Kerala, having them on its side would mean a “moral victory” for the UDF after the exit of the Kerala Congress (Mani) last year.
“Getting the NCP or even Kappan will be a moral victory for us although even he would need our votes to win in Pala,” said a senior Congress functionary who did not want to be named.
