The most critical verdict since this summer’s Lok Sabha elections is about to be revealed.

The mandate of the Maharashtra voter, whichever way it goes on Saturday, will have multiple implications, some of which will likely loom beyond the state.

October’s election in Haryana sprung a surprise and sucked away some of the impetus the Opposition to Narendra Modi had gained in the Lok Sabha elections. Will Maharashtra, the biggest state to elect a new Assembly this year, revive the Opposition’s momentum or will it be another shot in the arm for Modi?

There are other critical questions blowing in the wind. How does the outcome render the future of the two chief contenders for power, the ruling Mahayuti and the Maha Vikas Aghadi, and their components?

How will they reflect on the ties between the BJP and the RSS, which went into assertive mode following the BJP’s poor national returns?

Will the BJP be able to demand, and grab, the chief ministership of Maharashtra, arguably one of India’s most influential states?

Will the Congress make a play for the top post if the Opposition alliance wins and, if it does so, what impact might that have on its ties with its partners and on its own credentials as a party able to accommodate allies’ aspirations?

In the general election a few months ago, Maharashtra had contributed handsomely to pulling Modi’s numbers below the majority mark, forcing him to fall back on the support of allies. The NDA had won just 17 of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats, with the BJP tally restricted to 9.

Now the Prime Minister needs a turnaround in the state if he has to revive his pre-2024 bluster of “Modi hai to mumkin hai”.

As for the INDIA bloc and Rahul Gandhi, their general election cheer dented by the shock defeat in Haryana, they need to wrest the heart of India’s economic power to take on the cash-rich Modi machinery with renewed vigour.

The election results in Maharashtra and mineral-rich Jharkhand come at a time when the moniker “Modani” has returned to haunt the Modi establishment, with federal prosecutors in New York charging billionaire businessman Gautam Adani with multiple counts of fraud and bribery.

The poll outcomes are also likely to determine how vigorously the Opposition takes on the Treasury benches during Parliament’s winter session, scheduled to start on Monday, when the government plans to push through contentious legislation such as the waqf amendment bill.

A Mahayuti win in Maharashtra might enable the government benches to subdue the Opposition’s voice inside and outside Parliament. But a defeat could put Modi and his party on the defensive. Armed by a vindication of sorts on the Adani front, Rahul in his new role as leader of the Opposition could make the going painful for the Prime Minister.

Much is at stake also for Adani, who has been handed the project to redevelop Dharavi, Asia’s largest slum cluster that sprawls 590 acres. The Congress and Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena have promised to cancel the “Modani enterprise” project if they come to power but the third partner, Sharad Pawar’s NCP, has been silent on the subject.

The results may also help shape Modi’s ties with the RSS, especially after its chief Mohan Bhagwat’s barbs against the “ahankar” (arrogance) of the “sevak” following the BJP’s reduced Lok Sabha mandate.

The RSS is believed to have pulled out the stops to ensure a Mahayuti win in Maharashtra. The Nagpur-headquartered organisation is preparing to celebrate its centenary next year and doesn’t want a secular establishment at the helm of the state.

If the Mahayuti wins Maharashtra, the RSS would appropriate a large portion of the credit for itself and seek a price for it, insiders said.

It would want its favourite, Devendra Fadnavis, to be appointed chief minister and another leader of its choice to succeed “Modi-Shah’s rubber stamp” J.P. Nadda as BJP national president. The long-pending election for BJP chief is scheduled in December-January.

However, if Fadnavis has to be chief minister, the allies would have to be tackled. Incumbent chief minister Eknath Shinde of the Shiv Sena has emerged as a strong and popular candidate belying the BJP’s expectation that he would be a pushover, and it might be difficult to edge him out.

The BJP is contesting the lion’s share of 148 seats, leaving 80 for Shinde’s Sena, 56 for Ajit Pawar’s NCP and the remaining 4 for smaller allies. If its seat tally outstrips its allies’, the BJP will be in pole position to reclaim the chief minister’s chair. It was the BJP that had given the top job to Shinde after he split the erstwhile Shiv Sena and pulled down the Congress-NCP-Sena government led by Uddhav.

The RSS is learnt to be keen on seeing both its wishes fulfilled. But if political considerations — such as the fear of Shinde and Ajit breaking away and bringing about a political realignment — compel the BJP to part with the chief minister’s post, the ideological parent would seek the BJP chief’s post for Fadnavis, a Brahmin leader from Nagpur, insiders said.

The Maharashtra results will also provide a measure of the success or failure of the RSS-endorsed slogan of “Batenge toh katenge (Divided, we will be slaughtered)”, which upset allies NCP and Sena.

The BJP’s performance will show whether the slogan, coined by Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanth, who seems to have emerged as the new poster boy of the RSS, has helped the party overcome the caste fault lines in Maharashtra that hurt it in the general election.

On the wider horizon, the RSS appears to be preparing the ground to pick a successor to Modi. The results from Maharashtra and the nine Assembly by-elections in Uttar Pradesh could therefore be crucial to Adityanath’s ambitions.

After the BJP’s dismal show from Uttar Pradesh in the Lok Sabha polls, Adityanath has been given full charge over the by-elections and the results will therefore be seen as a mark sheet for him.

Amit Shah — probably the foremost contender to be Modi’s successor — is believed to have sidelined Adityanath from the decision-making process for the Lok Sabha polls.

For the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi of the Congress, Uddhav’s Sena and Sharad’s NCP, even a victory can bring tricky challenges. While a defeat would deal a body blow to the Congress’s national aspirations, a victory could ignite a tussle for the chief minister’s post.

With its heft significantly diminished after the Haryana defeat, the Congress is contesting the lowest number of seats (102) in its history in the state, with Uddhav’s party in the fray in 96 seats and Sharad’s NCP in 86.

The Congress is pitted mostly against the BJP. Its seat tally will determine its standing in the alliance and whether it can claim the chief minister’s post.

Uddhav and Sharad, too, are eyeing the top job, with observers not ruling out the wily Pawar Sr aligning with the BJP to get what he wants.

For the Congress, its electoral performance in Maharashtra would be crucial to determining the national standing of Rahul, and deciding whether the party can carry its allies along by accommodating their aspirations.