The BJP, widely believed to be pulling the strings behind the scenes in Maharashtra, wants to be doubly certain that the Uddhav Thackeray dispensation doesn’t have the numbers before it steps out in the open to stake claim to form the government, party insiders said.
The BJP so far has not even publicly claimed that the Uddhav government has been reduced to a minority or demanded a test of majority on the floor of the Assembly, an expected response in a situation like the one unfolding in Maharashtra.
The BJP insiders said that though Shiv Sena rebel Eknath Shinde appeared to have secured the support of more than two-thirds of his party’s MLAs that is required for a legal split, they don’t want to rush.
“Where is the need for us to speak?” a BJP leader said. “The Shiv Sena and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (alliance that rules Maharashtra) is imploding. When the process is over, we will make our move,” he added.
The biggest reason for the BJP’s deliberate silence, despite clear signs of party managers patronising and aiding the rebellion, is fear of the operation to topple the government failing like in 2019, causing yet another embarrassment to the leadership, the party insiders said. A nocturnal bid to overthrow the government that year had failed and the Sena had joined hands with the NCP and the Congress to snatch power from the BJP.
The BJP managers are now busy ensuring that the Shinde-led rebel Sena camp swells, sending out a clear message that Uddhav has lost the confidence of his MLAs.
Internally, the BJP managers had expected chief minister Uddhav to resign, given the scale of the rebellion.
The BJP sources said that by not stepping down and by choosing to play the emotional card in his speech on Wednesday, Uddhav wanted to hold on to power till the last moment.
“In such a scenario, we don’t want to make any mistake by rushing. We have to ensure that the rebel MLAs remain firm even after reaching Mumbai when a floor test in the Assembly takes place,” a BJP MP from Maharashtra said.
The BJP managers are also wary that getting the split in the Shiv Sena formalised would not be easy, given the fact that the acting Speaker of the Maharashtra Assembly is from the NCP, a constituent of the ruling coalition.
“The resolution letter passed by the Eknath Shinde camp is signed by 34 MLAs.… Even if it is true, I need to check the authenticity of the letter,” deputy Speaker Narhari Zirwal, who is the acting Speaker, said.
Zirwal pointed out that one dissident MLA who has returned from Surat, Nitin Desmukh, has claimed that it was not his sign on the resolution.
In the past, splits in parties have taken months and even court battles to get resolved.
Given these constraints, the BJP could look to governor Bhagat Singh Koshiyari, appointed by the central government, to ask Uddhav to convene the Assembly and prove his majority.
For this, the BJP managers want to be certain that the rebel MLAs will vote against the Uddhav government on the floor of the House.
“The Shiv Sena can use its influence in Mumbai to put pressure on the MLAs to change their decision. If that happens, it could cause another embarrassment,” a BJP functionary said, justifying the party’s strategy to exercise caution.
The Shiv Sena leadership in Mumbai has been highlighting this fear of the BJP by constantly appealing to the rebel MLAs, holed up in Guwahati, to come to Mumbai and talk, even expressing willingness to consider their demand of exiting the alliance with the NCP-Congress.
