The Congress in Maharashtra is bracing for another blow. This time over a seat for the Rajya Sabha from the western state where it stood a chance of winning, which the BJP is now eyeing.

In Maharashtra, polls will be held for six Rajya Sabha seats— along with 50 others in 12 states--- on February 27. The BJP is certain to bag three seats while the Shiv Sena faction of chief minister Eknath Shinde and Nationalist Congress Party led by Ajit Pawar will get one each. It is the sixth seat, which the Congress was confident of winning till a day ago, that has now cast a shadow.

The resignation of former state minister and three-time MLA from tony Bandra West Baba Siddique, announcing his departure from the Congress on Thursday, came as the first blow. While Siddique, who is expected to join Ajit Pawar on Saturday, was not a sitting MLA, his son Zeeshan represents Bandra East.

“With the father’s exit, we cannot be sure of the son,” said a veteran Maharashtra Congress leader. “The BJP has developed this Maharashtra model (of fragmenting the Opposition) and is replicating it everywhere else in the country.”

Nearly two weeks ago, it succeeded in drawing Bihar’s Nitish Kumar away from the Opposition bloc. A section of the Maharashtra Congress is apprehensive that a prominent minister in the Shinde government (who was earlier with the Congress) is trying to woo three more Congress MLAs and bring down the party’s strength below the required numbers.

TTO Graphics

“They could either resign or not vote. We are watching the situation helplessly. At this stage, there is very little we can do,” said a Congress MLA.

The party’s bete noire and Maharashtra deputy chief minister Devendra Fadnavis could emerge as the savior for the Congress. Fadnavis is keen on the fourth seat but without adding any more members from the Congress.

On Friday, Fadnavis was in Delhi to attend an event at the Dr Ambedkar International Centre. He is also expected to meet the BJP top brass to draw up a strategy for the Rajya Sabha polls. The BJP is likely to field a prominent business face for the seat and go for elections.

“This is such a sad situation that we have to look towards Fadnavis to keep our flock together,” a Congress MLA said.

On paper, with 44 MLAs the Congress has more than the required number of MLAs, 42, to secure a win to the Rajya Sabha in the 285-member house (though the actual strength is 288. Two seats fell vacant after the deaths of a member each from the Shiv Sena and the BJP, while a Congress MLA Sunil Kedar was disqualified).

Twenty months ago, a similar Rajya Sabha vote had paved the way for the collapse of the undivided Shiv Sena-NCP and Congress’ Mahavikas Aghadi government. On June 10, 2022, the BJP succeeded in defeating a second Congress nominee for the Rajya Sabha polls and ten days later the party enforced another coup in the elections to the legislative council. By the end of June Shinde was on the chief minister’s chair propped by the BJP. A year later Ajit Pawar broke away from his uncle Sharad Pawar and became the third power player in the Shinde-Fadnavis government.

The Congress in this situation cannot rely on its allies the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) with 16 legislators and NCP (Shardchandra Pawar) with 11.“If a whip is issued by the Shinde and Ajit Pawar factions, then they will have to follow it or else they could face disqualification,” said a Congress leader.

For years now, a simmering disquiet has been evident in the depleted Maharashtra Congress over what is described as the party high command’s “indifference” on a number of issues, which does not augur well for the grand old party as the Lok Sabha polls draw near.

“No action has been taken yet against the seven MLAs who had cross-voted in the MLC elections of June 2022 because the high command is afraid of further erosion. What is the message that is being sent?” asked a Congress veteran. “The party here in Maharashtra is going the same way as in Bengal, with blatant violations being ignored.”

In the past, the high command’s decision to field “outsiders” like P Chidambaram and current MP Imran Pratapgarhi had upset local leaders. “They did the same in Rajasthan, bringing outsiders to represent in the Rajya Sabha. That decision had an adverse impact on the local leadership that affected the state polls,” said a Congress leader.

While Pratapgarhi was brought to Maharashtra from Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra Congress leader Mukul Wasnik was fielded from Rajasthan in 2022. Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh who had earlier represented Assam in the upper house was elected from Rajasthan in 2019.

Of the 56 MPs set to retire in April, 10 are from the Congress and 38 from the BJP. The state Assembly wins in Telangana and Karnataka will not be of much solace for the Congress as the poor showing in Gujarat, the losses in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, and the uncertainty in Bihar are most likely to bring down further the Congress’ strength in the upper house. Given the strained ties between Mamata Banerjee and the Congress, it is unlikely that Abhishek Manu Singhvi, who won on a Congress ticket with Trinamul support in Bengal, will get a renomination.

“Mamata di also needs Singhvi to fight legal battles that the Trinamul and the Bengal government are engaged in. She might offer him a ticket if he switches to Trinamul,” said a Trinamul leader.