Hey, we get it. We’ve been under one of the most draconian coronavirus lockdowns in the world for so long. Who doesn’t want to go mingle now it’s been eased? But Covid-19 loves people letting down their guard (actually, which virus doesn’t?) And right now, this virus can’t believe it’s mixing with people meeting for drinks, dinners, birthdays without masks or physical distancing and posting the photos on social media. Some of the regulars at Delhi’s upscale Khan Market also aren’t wearing masks, forgetting being Christian Louboutin-heeled doesn’t protect against this virus. (It’s got to be said in Delhi’s not-so-fancy Bhogal Market, everyone’s wearing masks and standing apart).
So with the “unlock” relaxing further Monday in various parts of India with reopening of malls, restaurants and places of worship even while cases still are surging, it seems a good time to remind everyone why being careless about Covid-19 is a seriously bad idea. With the pandemic yet to peak in India, infection risks are greater than when the lockdown began. When lockdown 1.0 started March 25, there were just 519 recorded cases India-wide. On the weekend, India barrelled past Spain to become the fifth worst-hit globally in total confirmed cases. India had 246,662 cases, the Johns Hopkins Institute said Sunday, after nearly 10,000 after people tested positive in 24 hours, the latest in a string of record one-day spikes. India’s being opened up in an attempt to get the economy, pole-axed by the virus, back on track. But the takeaway remains that Covid-19 is very much on the loose and we must live with it as safely as we can until a vaccine or drug stops it in its tracks or the virus fades.
To stay well, the official advice is to wear a mask, keep at least two metres from others, wash your hands thoroughly and frequently and steer clear of congested areas. If you’re meeting someone, if possible, make it outside and at a distance. If someone visits, don’t hug -- keep to that two-metre limit and wear your mask. Even if it seems socially awkward in a home-setting, wearing your mask is the best thing. You’re protecting your visitor from droplets flying from your mouth when you speak and if they’re got a mask, they’re protecting you too -- something scientists call “source control.” If you go to your workplace, wear a mask and work physically distanced. You want your mask to fit tightly around the nose and mouth to lower your exposure to others’ exhaled virus particles.
And keep in mind, there’s often no way of knowing whether someone’s infectious. Covid-19 incubation takes up to 14 days and doctors say people may be most contagious a full two-to-three days before symptoms appear. Also, there are asymptomatic people shedding the virus. Studies of infected groups on cruise ships and in care homes have found 30 per cent to 80 per cent were asymptomatic when tested although they may have developed symptoms later.
A key lockdown goal was to slow the infection rate and buy time to expand the Covid-19 treatment infrastructure. The good news is cases are taking much longer to double, according to the World Health Organization. “The number of cases in India has been going up by an average of a third per week so probably the doubling time... is about three weeks,” senior WHO official Michael Ryan said Friday. That’s way better than the March pre-lockdown doubling rate which, according to the government, was 3.4 days and is no mean feat. But India’s caseload has still soared due to sheer population numbers.
Infection risks differ depending where you live. Covid-19’s concentrated mainly in Delhi, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Haryana. In Haryana, cases are reported doubling every six days. Getting a heavy viral blast may play a role in how sick people get which could explain why nurses and doctors and people in customer-facing jobs like bus drivers and store clerks can become severely unwell. Inhaling fewer viral particles could mean people have a better shot at averting infection and if they’re infected, reduced viral exposure load may offer an improved chance of suffering only mild symptoms, researchers say.
That’s why it may be best to have conversations with others with the windows open if inside, or outside, to reduce aerosol transmissions. Keep car windows down even if it’s baking hot if you’re giving a ride to a friend. Crucially, never touch your face unless you’ve thoroughly washed your hands. When taking off your mask, do it by the elastic and wash your hands before and after removal. If you want to be extra-safe, wear a face shield. Ideally, it should cover the face from the head to below the chin and leave no space between the forehead and shield’s headpiece. A large study in Lancet suggests you’re three times less likely to contract Covid-19 if you wear eye protection like face shields or goggles. A simulation study in April found face shields reduced workers’ inhalational exposure by 96 per cent within 45cm of a cough.
One positive: India has one of the lowest Covid-19 death rates globally, possibly due to its large young population. The government says the overall death rate is 2.86 per cent (some experts contest the methodology, calculating the rate could be as high as 5 per cent. Others say it could be far lower because of undetected cases of people who’ve recovered with no medical attention). While it’s commonly believed it’s overwhelmingly the over-60s who are dying, a study last month in Delhi found nearly half of Covid-19 deaths were of people below 60. Common fatality links, regardless of age, are “comorbidities” -- diabetes, obesity, heart ailments, strokes and kidney disease so anyone with these problems should seek to avoid outside interactions. Sometimes, though, the virus seems totally arbitrary -- fiercely attacking young, healthy adults with no disease history which is why everyone must be careful.
The do’s and don’ts seem endless. We’ve got to accept we’re living in very different times and this year may have to be a social write-off, though people can always get together virtually via WhatsApp or Zoom. And while it may seem hard to imagine, there will come a time when Covid-19 is no longer lurking to catch us. Meantime, be smart, stay safe and remember it’s not just “other people” who contract the virus.
