Ruling LDF took the early lead in Kerala with the left alliance leading in 97 seats while the Congress-led UDF are ahead in 42 seats. BJP managed to take the lead in 3 seats, according to ndtv.com.
Counting for the 140-seat Kerala assembly began amid strict adherence to Covid norms as the country battles the raging pandemic, with postal ballots being counted first.
Exit polls of local and national television networks have predicted unanimously that the LDF will be re-elected with varying degrees of margins. If that happens, it will mean an end to the four-decade-old trend in the state’s politics of the incumbent not being re-elected
Kerala Assembly Elections
Seats: 140
Voters: 2.74 crore
Voting: one day, April 6
Incumbent: LDF with 91 seats
Majority mark: 71
Kerala voters have an unblemished record since the 1970s of ejecting incumbent governments. If the Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF wins this time it will be a first after a very long time.
It will be seen as Vijayan’s win and will strengthen his position in the party. Voters have been impressed by his handling of Covid-19 and also the 2018 Kerala floods. Some observers say this will be the first Kerala election that has been decided on performance.
The UDF, by contrast, went to the polls without naming a leader. Former chief minister Oommen Chandy was considered one potential. Also, former minister and former president of the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee V. M. Sudheeran was another potential leader. Congress MP Shashi Tharoor was reckoned to be an outside contender.
The Congress is in a tricky situation. In the 2019 general elections it won 19 out of the 20 seats in Kerala. This is also a huge chunk of its 54 Lok Sabha seats. If it loses this time, it will be despite the fact that Rahul Gandhi represents Kerala’s Wayanad constituency and had campaigned actively.
Poll issues
Though Covid-19 numbers are now soaring, the belief in Kerala is that Vijayan has done a good job tackling the situation. There are questions about the numbers but Kerala has kept fatalities low and the hospital system is coping even as numbers have soared. The state is also one of the few that has sufficient oxygen supplies for patients. The state also has a large number of older people living on their own and this created unique problems of its own. So, in April last year the state began serving 2.8 lakh food packets daily for people who found it difficult to get to shops during lockdown. At a different level, camps were created for migrant workers who have become crucial players in the Kerala economy.
Similarly, in the 2018 Kerala floods the government rose to provide aid rapidly to affected people. Its biggest black mark was one not entirely of its own making, over the right of all women to enter the Sabarimala Temple. The Supreme Court ordered that women of all ages should be allowed into the temple and the Kerala government moved zealously to ensure that this was implemented. This angered many Hindus in the state.
Key candidates
Pinarayi Vijayan contested from his hometown seat, Dharmadam, in the North Kerala Malabar region. He first entered the legislative assembly in 1970 and has won a total of five elections since then. In the 1990s as power minister, he is said to have vastly improved the sector. His great rival in the party was the former LDF Chief Minister V. S. Achuthanandan who wouldn’t leave politics despite his advanced age.
Oommen Chandy also has an extraordinary political career behind him. He has represented Puthuppally in Kottayam district for over 50 years since 1970. He has had two terms as chief minister.
