Polls in three key states later this year will bring the BJP face to face with its first big challenge after the setback in the general election, amid fears in the party that further reverses could impact the stability of Narendra Modi’s first coalition government.

Elections are due in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand between October and December. In all three states, the Lok Sabha results had jolted Brand Modi and the famed BJP election machinery.

The BJP rules Maharashtra as junior partner in an alliance (Mahayuti) while it governs Haryana directly. It’s in the Opposition in Jharkhand, ruled by a JMM-led alliance.

“The Lok Sabha results in these states show that local issues eclipsed Brand Modi. If the party is defeated in even two of the three states, it would be seen as yet another blow to Brand Modi,” a BJP leader said.

He argued that such an outcome would hurt the central government, too: “Not only will the Opposition become more aggressive, even the NDA allies could turn demanding.”

Going by the Lok Sabha results, winning the Assembly polls looks an uphill task for the BJP and its allies in each of the three states. With very little time left, it would be difficult to take corrective steps and turn the tide, party insiders said.

In Maharashtra, the BJP and its allies — the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) and the NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) — suffered a stunning reverse in the Lok Sabha polls, winning just 17 of the 48 seats. The BJP won just 9 of the 28 seats it contested, with the Sena picking up 7 and the NCP one.

The post-poll developments have brought to light tensions within the Mahayuti, even leading to speculation about a political realignment.

Chief minister Eknath Shinde has indirectly blamed the debacle on Modi’s aggressive “400-plus seats” slogan that triggered suspicion among Dalits in particular that the government wanted the big mandate to be able to amend the Constitution and abolish reservations.

“We had to suffer losses because a false narrative was set up against us,” Shinde told reporters in Mumbai.

“Narratives such as the Constitution would be changed, reservation will not exist, etc, were peddled against us and because of the ‘400 paar’ slogan, people began doubting us and believing in the false narrative,” he said.

Shinde also cited farmer anger and obliquely criticised the Centre for failing to address the issue of the ban on onion exports or to offer good prices to soybean and cotton farmers.

“The onion made us cry in the Nashik region and soybean and cotton hit us in the Marathwada and Vidarbha regions,” he said.

To try and check onion prices, the Centre had banned the crop’s export last December before lifting the ban just ahead of the general election.

Shinde, however, lauded Modi’s “hard work and dedication to the country”.

Also, many within the Sena and the NCP are unhappy at what they see as the denial of adequate representation to their parties in the new Modi government.

“Political realignments in the form of many leaders returning to Uddhav Thackeray’s and Sharad Pawar’s Sena and NCP factions, respectively, could happen ahead of the Assembly polls,” a BJP leader feared.

Shinde, at his media interaction, skipped the impact of the Marathas’ reservation agitation and his government’s allegedly aggressive handling of the peaceful protests, believed to be a prime reason behind the Mahayuti’s defeat in Marathwada.

“The Maratha agitation will again harm us in the Assembly polls,” a BJP insider said.

Maratha leader Manoj Jarange Patil has resumed the agitation, after a break during the Lok Sabha polls, with an indefinite hunger strike.

Patil wants Marathas included in the OBC category and has dismissed as “eyewash” Shinde’s enactment of a separate 10 per cent quota saying it would not stand legal scrutiny. A challenge to the quota is pending before Bombay High Court.

On the farmers’ issues raised by Shinde – who said he would meet new agriculture minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan over the matter – the BJP insider said farm distress was a perennial issue in Maharashtra and the Centre could do little in the months left before the polls.

Haryana

In Haryana, the BJP won just 5 Lok Sabha seats after having swept all 10 in 2019. Party leaders said the results owed largely to anger among Jat farmers and the loss of chunks of the Dalit vote because of fears about the BJP axing reservations.

“In the 2019 Assembly polls, the BJP had failed to win a majority and formed the government with the support of 10 MLAs of the JJP. Going by the Lok Sabha results, retaining Haryana looks very difficult,” a BJP leader handling the state said.

Asked if aggressive campaigning by Modi could salvage the situation, he said: “When the Modi magic did not work in the Lok Sabha polls, can we expect it to rescue us in the Assembly elections?”

The BJP’s lone hope in Haryana rests on its success in turning the election into a Jat versus non-Jat battle and consolidating the non-Jat vote in its favour, party leaders said.

They flagged how the leadership had replaced two-term chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar with a fellow non-Jat — OBC leader Nayab Singh Saini —- just ahead of the general election, frustrating the powerful Jat community.

Jharkhand

In Jharkhand, the numbers were somewhat better, with the BJP winning 8 of the 14 Lok Sabha seats and ally AJSU winning one. However, the NDA lost from all the five reserved Scheduled Caste seats in the state by big margins.

“The tribal plus Muslim plus Dalit combination went totally against us. If this continues through to the Assembly polls, we can find it difficult,” a BJP leader said.