India’s national weather agency on Monday predicted that the country would receive “above normal” rainfall, or 106 per cent of the long-period average, during the four-month summer monsoon season starting June.

The India Meteorological Department said above-normal rainfall is “likely over most parts of the country except some areas of the Northeast, east and northwest where below normal rainfall is likely”. The monsoon rains account for about 75 per cent of India’s annual rainfall and are critical for crops, economy, and water resources.

Union earth sciences ministry and IMD officials cited expected sea surface temperature conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean and the winter and spring snow cover over Eurasia among factors that IMD took into account for the forecast.

The IMD said the equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures are currently slightly above normal — a condition weather scientists call a moderate El Nino that is generally associated with poor rainfall over India. However, the IMD said, climate model forecasts indicate that the equatorial Pacific temperatures will approach neutral condition by the start of the monsoon and dip slightly lower than normal — a condition called La Nina — during the second half of the monsoon. La Nina is generally associated with good rainfall over India.