Bihar is agog with a startling but not unlikely buzz — that Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad, the two men who have taken turns to lord over the state for more than three decades, are about to fall apart yet again. The second Mahagatbandhan experiment is on the brink with Nitish likely to pull out.

The BJP central leadership was in hyperactive mode all day; Bihar party chief Samrat Choudhary and other senior members were summoned to Delhi and were closeted at Union home minister Amit Shah’s residence with party president J.P. Nadda till late evening.

Should Nitish switch sides again, as speculation in Patna’s political circles suggests, the key impact will not be so much on the state as on the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. A break-up in Bihar’s ruling alliance will render a debilitating blow to the INDIA formation, already battling dissonance in Bengal and Punjab.

A political source in the know of Thursday’s fast-paced events told The Telegraph that Nitish could also be exploring the possibility of recommending the dissolution of the Assembly in order that a new Assembly can be elected along with the Lok Sabha polls. There can, of course, be no confirmation of this in the current state of Bihar’s political fluidity. Some suggested that Nitish and his trusted intermediaries were in touch with the top BJP leaders in Delhi.

Signs of trouble in the ruling alliance emerged on Thursday following a series of deriding posts by RJD president Lalu Prasad’s daughter Rohini Acharya on X; her posts apparently targeted chief minister Nitish Kumar for his public criticism of
dynastic politics on Wednesday.

Though the posts did not name Nitish, the chief minister was clearly upset; he expressed his annoyance to deputy chief minister and RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav at a state cabinet meeting and stomped off.

With the matters coming to a head in an alliance that has been under visible strain in recent weeks, Rohini deleted her posts.

But that may not have mollified the chief minister; neither did it stop people in the thick of power circles from wondering whether Nitish was about to effect another somersault, now a thing of legend in contemporary politics. As one observer remarked sardonically, “For Nitish, going anywhere is like homecoming.”

A few other back-to-back developments added to the sense of political turbulence that may not only rock the alliance but even sink it.

Nitish cancelled all his scheduled appointments and went into a huddle with trusted party leaders Bijendra Prasad Yadav, Vijay Choudhary, Ashok Choudhary, Sanjay Jha (all ministers), state JDU president Umesh Kushwaha and a few others.

The JDU has also asked all its MLAs to return to Patna. Sources in the party indicated that Nitish may not join Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra when it enters Bihar on January 29.

On the other hand, Bihar BJP president Samrat Choudhary suddenly flew to Delhi along with Union minister Ashwini Choubey after asking all party MLAs to return to the state capital. Sources said Nitish’s political consultant and JDU national spokesperson K.C. Tyagi also boarded the same flight after consultations with his boss.

Top RJD leaders in Patna were also in a flurry of meetings at the residence of Lalu and his wife, former chief minister Rabri Devi, to discuss likely steps to tackle any sudden political shift effected by Nitish; top of their mind, sources said, was to explore the possibility of the “Grand Alliance” being able to form a government without the JDU.

Lalu’s daughter Rohini lives in Singapore, but is a keen follower of political developments in the state, and is said to harbour political ambitions. She had donated one of her kidneys to her father in 2022. She posted three statements in Hindi on X on Thursday morning, which triggered the political storm.

“Samajwadi purodha hone ka karta wahi dava hai, hawaon ki tarah badalti jiski vichardhara hai (He, whose ideology changes like winds, claims to be a socialist stalwart or master),” was the first post by Rohini.

“Kheej jataye kya hoga jab hua na koi apna yogya, vidhi ka vidhan kaun tale jab khud ki niyat mein ho khot (Venting frustration will not bear any result because none of his own came up as capable. Who can deflect divine destiny, when one’s own intention has fault),” Rohini added in her next post.

The RJD chief’s daughter followed it up with “Aksar kuchh log nahin dekh paate hain apni kamiyan, lekin kisi doosre pe kichad uchhalne ko karte hain badtamiziyan (Often people do not see their own deficiencies, but indulge in insolence to throw mud on others).”

The chronology of Rohini’s posts could be understood by the initiated in the light of Nitish’s speech at a public rally organised by his party to celebrate the birth centenary of Bharat Ratna socialist leader and former Bihar chief minister Karpoori Thakur on Wednesday.

Speaking at the rally, Nitish had hit out at people promoting their families in politics without taking anybody’s name; many perceived it to be an attack on Lalu. “Karpoori Thakur never promoted his family in politics. I have followed him and have never promoted anybody from my family.... But some people always indulge in advancing their families,” Nitish had said.

By reacting to Rohini’s posts, Nitish may have tangentially accepted that his statement targeted Lalu and his family, observers believe. The RJD chief’s wife Rabri Devi, currently an MLC, has been chief minister in the past, eldest daughter Misa Bharti is an MP, elder son Tej Pratap Yadav is state environment minister, while younger son Tejashwi is deputy chief minister.

Nitish quit the NDA twice — in 2013 and in August 2022 — both times to tie up with the RJD and the Congress. He spearheaded efforts to put together INDIA but became disenchanted because he wasn’t named convener. The JDU and the BJP have not criticised each other for a while. Shah, when recently asked about the possibility of the return of former allies including Nitish to the NDA fold, had said the party would consider such proposals.

The Grand Alliance has 159 seats in the 243-member Assembly. Sans Nitish’s JDU, the Grand Alliance will have 114 seats, which is just eight short of the majority mark. Sources said that in case Nitish switches sides, the RJD may try to muster a majority on the floor; the Speaker, Awadh Bihar Chaudhary, belongs to the RJD.