The decision of the Trinamul Congress to go alone in the Lok Sabha elections in West Bengal, and not as part of the INDIA bloc, has paved the way for a three-cornered electoral contest, in which the TMC and the BJP stand poised to consolidate vote support.

The Congress-Left combine, the third entity, will have the potential to eat into the votes of the TMC and the BJP, particularly in minority-dominated pockets and seats with narrow margins.

In a major setback to the INDIA bloc, West Bengal Chief Minister and TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee on Wednesday announced that her party will fight the Lok Sabha polls "alone" in the state, a remark that rattled the grand old party and sent political ripples in the INDIA bloc.

The seat-sharing proposals between the Congress and the TMC went haywire after the latter accused the grand old party of making unjustified demands without acknowledging the ground reality.

"We wanted the alliance but the Congress was delaying the process. The Congress should have allowed Mamata Banerjee and the TMC to lead the fight in Bengal. The TMC has nothing to lose (now). We are strong enough to defeat the BJP in Bengal," TMC Lok Sabha party leader Sudip Bandopadhyay said.

According to TMC leaders, who spoke to PTI on condition of anonymity, the breakup of the INDIA alliance in Bengal has both electoral advantages and disadvantages.

A TMC leader pointed out that a Left-Congress alliance is likely to thwart the consolidation of anti-TMC votes in the BJP's favour, in a number of constituencies in the southern part of the state.

"After the Left and Congress alliance fell apart in West Bengal in 2019, it had led to a four-cornered contest with BJP bagging the entire chunk of the anti-TMC votes in the state. In the scenario of a three-cornered contest, there will again be a division of anti-TMC votes," he said.

A triangular contest might provide the BJP with opportunities in a few seats, especially if minority votes are divided.

"In minority-dominated seats, the Left-Congress alliance can be a headache in some pockets as we had seen during the Sagardighi by-polls in 2023 when the Left-Congress alliance won the seat. But this time we are hopeful that the minorities would en bloc vote for the TMC as we are the strongest anti-BJP force in the state," a senior TMC leader said.

The consolidation of anti-TMC votes led to an unprecedented rise in BJP's vote share from 17 per cent in 2014 to 40 per cent in 2019, increasing its tally from two to 18 seats in the state.

Despite the TMC experiencing a three per cent increase in vote share to reach 43 per cent, its parliamentary seat count declined from 34 to 22 in the 2019 elections.

The biggest loser in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls was the Left, which drew a blank, and its vote share dropped from 24 per cent to 6 per cent, whereas the Congress's tally dropped to two from four with its vote share shrunk from 9.5 per cent to 5 per cent.

Data from various by-polls conducted after the 2021 assembly elections indicate a shift in the dynamics of anti-TMC votes.

Following the 2021 assembly polls, there has been a resurgence of the Left and the Congress as formidable opposition forces. The alliance demonstrated its strength by securing the Sagardighi seat from the TMC in the 2023 assembly bypoll.

However, the landscape changed after the formation of the 28-party INDIA alliance, which included the CPI (M)-led Left Front, Congress, and the TMC.

Subsequently, the BJP emphasised that the CPI (M) and Congress lack credibility as effective anti-TMC forces in the state.

In West Bengal, the CPI(M) and Congress since the 2021 assembly polls have aligned against the TMC and BJP.

"After the INDIA alliance, our campaign that TMC and Congress are allies worked well and the results were seen in Dhupguri by-poll. Despite the TMC and the Left-Congers alliance fighting separately, we bagged the second position," a senior state BJP leader said.

BJP leader Dilip Ghosh, however, declined to attach much importance to the development of the INDIA alliance, saying "The people of Bengal know it is only the BJP which has been consistent in its fight against the TMC." Senior Congress leader Pradip Bhattacharya, however, said, a TMC- Congress alliance as part of the INDIA bloc would have been in a better position to take on the BJP.

Mohammed Kamruzzaman, the general secretary of All Bengal Minority Youth Federation, also told PTI that had there been an INDIA alliance with Congress and TMC part of it, minority votes in Bengal would have swung in favour of it.

"But now minorities would split at places and they would vote whichever force is stronger in the fight against the BJP," he said.

Maidul Islam, professor at the Centre for Studies in Social Sciences, said the TMC is expected to gain the most as it will help recurrence of the 2019 situation when the BJP gained by bagging the entire chunk of the anti-TMC votes.

"However in minority-dominated areas, it runs the risk of losing its votes to the Congress-Left alliance," he said.

Political scientist Biswanath Chakraborty, however, said both the TMC and the BJP will gain from the present political scenario.

"The Congress- Left alliance may not be able to win seats, but it will indeed make a difference in victory or defeat," he said.

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