A day after Hemant Soren’s release from jail on bail, loyalist Champai Soren continues to remain Jharkhand chief minister with speculation mounting on what is preventing his predecessor from reclaiming his throne.

Officially, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha sources said Champai had offered to step down on Friday evening itself but was dissuaded by Hemant, who is “likely to decide next week” whether to take over from Champai or let him continue till the Assembly elections later this year.

Off the record, the sources said Hemant may be apprehensive about effecting a change of chief ministers now and thereby bringing into play a Raj Bhavan with which the
JMM government has a trust deficit.

Ranchi-based political columnist Faisal Anurag, who has had a close association with Hemant and his father and party patriarch Shibu Soren, spelled out the reason why he believes Hemant might allow Champai to remain chief minister till the polls.

“As far as my political understanding goes, I don’t see Hemant becoming chief minister in July,” he said.

Anurag cited how Hemant had on Saturday morning suggested the BJP-led Centre might advance the Jharkhand Assembly polls, due in December, to hold it simultaneously with elections in Haryana and Maharashtra, expected in October-November.

“If the Jharkhand elections are held early in October-November, the Model Code of Conduct (MCC) would likely be enforced from September,” Anurag said.

“There will be barely two months (July and August) left for proper government functioning (or launching welfare schemes). Hemant, aware of the present stance of the governors in the country, would not risk allowing Champai to resign and staking claim himself,” he added.

“Because, there will always be the prospect of the governor delaying the process (of Hemant being sworn in) without citing reasons, which might keep the government in limbo in the run-up to the elections.”

Under the rules, Champai has to tender his resignation to governor C.P. Radhakrishnan, and Hemant has to furnish a letter to the governor showing the support of enough MLAs and staking claim to become chief minister.

The JMM, however, has history with the governor on this count.

After the Enforcement Directorate arrested Hemant on January 31 night – following his resignation when he realised his arrest was imminent --- the Raj Bhavan had made Champai wait till February 2 to take oath as chief minister. The matter was resolved only after the JMM and ally Congress wrote to the governor against further delay in government formation.

Hemant would not want a possible repeat in the few weeks left before the MCC comes into effect – a period during which, JMM sources said, the state government wanted to launch several welfare measures.

Several BJP-appointed governors have had regular run-ins with non-BJP state governments, such as those in Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu.

The JMM has already had several tussles with Radhakrishnan during his year-old term, particularly with the governor sitting on several bills passed by the Assembly that dealt with issues such as identifying domicile status or increasing reservations for disadvantaged communities.

“As of now, Hemantji is keeping his cards close to his chest. Things will become clear in the first week of July,” an aide said.

Addressing his supporters outside his home in Ranchi on Saturday morning, Hemant repeated his allegation that the case against him was a BJP conspiracy.

Hemant had been arrested in connection with an ED probe into a money-laundering angle to an alleged land scam in Ranchi. He got bail from Jharkhand High Court on Friday.

“It has come to my knowledge that they are making plans to advance the Assembly elections in Jharkhand.... I dare them to conduct the elections even tomorrow and they will be wiped out,” Hemant added.

The Election Commission, widely accused of kowtowing to the Narendra Modi government, has a free hand to advance Assembly elections by up to six months before the term of the existing House ends.

In a message to Jharkhand’s sizeable tribal voters, Hemant said: “The BJP is naming tribals as chief ministers in neighbouring states but they are just rubber stamps.”

The BJP has appointed tribal chief ministers Vishnu Deo Sai (Chhattisgarh) and Mohan Charan Majhi (Odisha).

The JMM-led ruling alliance in Jharkhand has 47 MLAs – 29 from the JMM, 17 from the Congress and one from the RJD – in the 81-member Assembly. The lone CPIML member, Vinod Singh, supports the ruling coalition.

The BJP has 26 legislators and its ally AJSU has three. The NCP has one MLA, and there are two Independents besides a nominated member from the Anglo-Indian community.