It looks like it may have been some ominous opinion poll numbers that prompted Prime Minister Narendra Modi to stage his stunning U-turn on the farm laws after standing firm against massive farmer protests for 14 months.

One of the first opinion polls of the election season by ABP-CVoter showed the BJP losing more than 100 seats in the Uttar Pradesh state election next year. According to the pollsters, the party would scrape through to form a government but only just.

While the BJP holds 325 seats out of a total of 403 in the present assembly, that tally might plunge to between 213 and 221, said the survey. That would still give the party a majority but any slippage could make the outcome too close to call in the pivotal state whose loss would be a humiliation for the BJP and signal potentially the beginning of the end for Modi. Farmers in both western Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, where elections also loom, have been protesting against the law.

So Modi took an unusual route for him that has shattered his image of invincibility. On the hugely significant day of Gurpurab, he reversed course and humbly declared he was “apologising to the nation,” adding, “let’s make a fresh start” on the agricultural laws. Possibly the BJP had also been rattled by its crushing defeat in West Bengal last May.

Surely though, Modi didn’t think for a moment that he could repeal the three agricultural farm laws after more than a year and just tiptoe away from the scene pretending nothing had happened? The prime minister has pulled off many amazing against-the-odds coups during his political career but he’s an ace political realist. The farmers have scored a knockout blow.

In the event, the fallout has been loud and raucous. Congress supporters are posting videos of Rahul Gandhi predicting many months ago that Modi would have to back down on the farm laws. And the farmers are celebrating, though they say they won’t end their demonstrations until the legislation is formally repealed in Parliament. (Modi says he’ll act swiftly -- he wants the demonstrators out of the way before Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit next month). In Punjab, Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi has declared that the government would build a monument to farmers who had died during the anti-farm law agitation.

The Akali Dal meanwhile announced that it was pulling out of its electoral alliance with the BJP. However, the decision to junk the farm laws probably opens the road to an alliance in Punjab with former Congress Chief Minister Amarinder Singh. Not surprisingly, Singh immediately praised Modi for the move saying: “I am sure the Central Govt will continue to work in tandem for the development of kisans.”

Congress leader Jairam Ramesh was clear why the government had suddenly backed down: “The Uttar Pradesh elections forced the U-turn.” Ramesh added: “First, bulldoze laws in Parliament. Then face unprecedented protests. Thereafter confront realities in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab."

Aam Aadmi Party Leader Arvind Kejriwal too pointed out how his party had backed the farmers and said: “The coming generations will remember how they sacrificed their lives to save farming and farmers.”

But the BJP is making strenuous efforts to counter the Opposition jubilation and play down the about-turn. One party leader claimed the decision was “dedicated to the people of the country.” Others said it showed his strength as a “mass leader” and called the move a “masterstroke.” A story by news agency ANI Digital was headlined: “From Taapsee Pannu to Sonu Sood: celebrities hail PM Modi’s decision to repeal three farm laws.”

But there were indications of discord even amongst staunch BJP supporters. One backer abandoned ship, saying: “Biggest let down by Narendra Modi. Even bigger disaster than demonetisation.”

Modi, though, was reading the election writing on the wall. The farmers were showing they were ready to stage a second winter of protests camping outside the national capital. If the BJP loses ground in Western UP where the farm protest has been led by leader Rakesh Tikait, it could have a fatal impact on its chances in the state elections. In 2019 the BJP swept all except four of the 29 Lok Sabha seats in the region.

Politically, the BJP knows it doesn’t have much chance of winning in Punjab even after dropping the farm laws. However, the way is now clear for a tie-up with Amarinder Singh.

It remains to be seen whether after protesting through all of last winter and during the devastating second wave of Covid-19, being vilified by government ministers as Khalistani terrorists and traitors and the deaths of some 600 demonstrators from causes ranging from the weather to exhaustion, the farmers will be mollified by Modi’s biggest retreat during his seven years in power. There’s also the matter of the eight people run over by the car linked to India’s junior home minister. So far, the mood among the farmers after their long struggle isn’t forgiving.

There also may be blowback from the climbdown for the BJP in other parts of the country where many farmers of crops such as coffee, pepper, arecanut, oranges and apples liked the farm laws and aren’t happy about them being repealed. Says one south India plantation owner: “All three farm laws would have given us better market access, improved bargaining power, reduced price volatility and enhanced price realization.”

Modi built up his strongman image so much that even the slightest retreat can impact it. That leaves us with the big question: has Modi’s Teflon political coating has been irreparably damaged?