The Congress looks set to romp to victory in the Karnataka state elections, moving far ahead of the BJP which has ruled both in the state and Centre. The big loser in the polls could be the JD (S), but it could win enough seats to play the role of kingmaker, according to several exit polls that appeared soon after polling closed.
The Congress will score big in regions like Old Mysuru and Hyderabad Karnataka, the polls project, and will win far more seats than they held in these regions in the 2018 state elections.
The likely Congress sweep came despite the flower-strewn, intense campaigning done by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other BJP leaders like Home Minister Amit Shah and BJP President J. P. Nadda.
The most optimistic prediction for the Congress came from Axis-India Today, which calculates that Congress will win between 122-140 seats in the 224-seat assembly. The poll predicted that the BJP would pull in between 62 to 80 seats.
A total of 10 exit polls appeared soon after polling closed and some of these predicted big wins for the Congress. The others predicted a tighter fight, with the BJP coming out in front in some.
Another poll, News 24-Today’s Chanakya, forecasts the Congress will rack up 120 seats compared to 90 for the BJP. The poll showed that the JD(S) would be able to corral 12 seats.
ABP-C Voter gave Congress between 100 and 112 seats and predicted the BJP would pick up between 83 and 95 seats.
In the 2018 elections, the JD (S) won 37 seats and this time most polls say it will collect between 20-25 seats. Still, such an outcome could leave the JD(S) in a position to play kingmaker, even though almost all polls predicted that it is likely to lose seats in most parts of the state except its Old Mysuru stronghold.
Two channels, News Nation-CGS and Suvarna News- Jan Ki Baat, went against the majority of the polls. News Nation-CGS gave the BJP 114 seats and the Congress 86. Suvarna-Jan Ki Baat, similarly, reckoned the BJP would pull in between 94 and 117 seats and the Congress would not be very far behind with between 91-106.
If the exit polls are correct, this election would reverse the results in 2018 when the BJP was able to form a government even though it got only 104 seats in the 224-seat assembly. The Congress came in with 80 seats and was too far behind to challenge the BJP in any way.
In the 2019, national elections the BJP wiped out both the Congress and the JD (S) and won 25 out of 28 parliamentary seats.
One poll, Axis India Today, concluded that the Dalits had moved back to the Congress and the Muslims had consolidated behind the Congress and moved away from the JD(S). It also concluded that one in five BJP voters backed the party because of Prime Minister Modi. It also, focused on the Coastal Karnataka region where the BJP stayed ahead, possibly because of communal polarisation.
