Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina will start a four-day visit to China on Monday amid expectations about bilateral ties being elevated to a comprehensive strategic-cooperative partnership, considered the third-highest level of relationship China confers on other countries.

Hasina’s fifth visit to Beijing — barely two weeks after Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted her — begins at a time Dhaka has been showing signs of a “significant tilt” towards China.

There is speculation in Dhaka that the visit would lead to a free trade agreement (FTA), besides the signing of 20 to 22 MoUs covering multiple sectors and the formalisation of a $20-billion loan.

New Delhi will “need to watch the outcome of the visit closely”, said a former Indian diplomat.

Diplomatic sources in Dhaka said a lot of preparation had preceded Hasina’s visit, which comes at the invitation of Premier Li Qiang.

A delegation from China’s EXIM Bank visited Bangladesh last week for discussions on the proposed $20-billion loan, of which $5 billion will be disbursed in yuans to facilitate payments for imports from China.

Liu Jianchao, international department head of the Chinese Communist Party, too visited Dhaka recently.

“There is going to be a transition in the Dhaka-Beijing relationship following this trip. It will be reflected in the joint statement,” a source in Dhaka said.

However, Obaidul Qader, general secretary of the ruling Awami League and a minister, tried to put Dhaka’s contrasting relations with New Delhi and Beijing in perspective.

“India is a time-tested political friend of Bangladesh, and China is a friend necessary for Bangladesh to attain its developmental goals,” he said on Sunday.

The clarification is unlikely to soothe nerves in New Delhi, which realises that Dhaka’s dependence on Beijing is likely to grow if more finances flow to Bangladesh from China.

India is also eagerly waiting to see the contours of the likely FTA. “We give Bangladeshi products free access to India while we have to pay duties for market access there. It will indeed be a concern if Chinese goods get concessions in Bangladesh,” a source said.

Anything that Dhaka and Beijing do in “the maritime space” or in “defence cooperation” will also be a concern, he added.

“Take, for instance, the strategically important Mongla Port, where all the development was taking place under an Indian line of credit. Now the Chinese are interested in activities like constructing jetties and a container yard,” the source said.

“The Bangladesh defence forces largely depend on China for supplies. We need to track the course of their defence cooperation.”

One key concern for India is whether the Teesta crops up during the visit.

While Bangladesh has been waiting for a water-sharing deal with India for more than a decade, China reached out to Hasina with a proposal to dredge the river and create reservoirs and embankments along it around four years ago. During her recent India trip, Modi too offered assistance for conservation and management of the trans-boundary river.

Bangladesh foreign minister Hasan Mahmud on Sunday clarified that Teesta was not on the agenda for discussions with China. But it’s unclear how Bangladesh might
respond if China brings the matter up.