The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Saturday said that a cyclonic circulation has formed over Andaman sea which is likely to intensify into a low pressure by October 21.

The low pressure may have an impact on coastal areas of north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh next week.

IMD in its evening bulletin said: "The cyclonic circulation is formed over central Andaman sea. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea around October 21. Thereafter, it is likely to move northwestwards and intensify further into a depression around October 23." Amid speculation on formation of a cyclone in October this year as forecast by certain international models, IMD Director General Mrutyunjaya Mohapatra said that a clearer picture will emerge only after formation of a low-pressure area around October 21.

"The IMD has made no prediction on whether the system will develop into a cyclonic storm. October is known as the month of cyclones and some weather models are indicating probability of cyclogenesis. We provide a forecast on the path and intensification of a system after assessing over 10 weather models but right now there is no consensus among them as a low-pressure area is yet to be formed," Mohapatra said.

Though it is too early to make a cyclone prediction, Mohapatra said: "The system is likely to have an impact on coastal areas of North Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal and Bangladesh." Mohapatra said that the sea condition will remain rough along and off the coast from October 22 to 25. The coastal region of Odisha is likely to receive heavy rainfall from October 23-25. He suggested the fishermen to return to shore by October 21.

He said the low-pressure area is likely to be formed over Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea on October 21, it is likely to move northwestwards and intensify further into a depression around October 23.

Mohapatra, in a video message, said that the squally weather with wind speed 35 kmph to 45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph is likely to prevail over eastcentral and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal on October 21-22.

The IMD forecast said that light to moderate rain/thundershower very likely to occur at one or two places over the districts of south Odisha, north coastal Odisha and dry weather very likely to prevail over the districts of north interior Odisha on Sunday.

The IMD also forecast thunderstorm with lightning very likely to occur at isolated places in the districts of Puri, Khurda, Nayagarh, Ganjam and Gajapati districts on Sunday.

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