People aged between 30 and 65 years account for over half of India’s Covid-19 deaths, an analysis has found, portending grim implications for households and the economy.

Health researchers at the International Institute of Population Sciences (IIPS), Mumbai, have found that 58 per cent from a sample of Covid-19 dead were aged between 30 and 65 years, representing the most productive workforce years.

The analysis suggests the epidemic may be eating into India’s workforce by causing more premature deaths in working-age people compared with countries such as China, Italy or the US, where most deaths have occurred among patients 65 years or older.

Patients aged 70 or older accounted for 80 per cent of the Covid-19 deaths in Italy, and those 65 years or older made up 73 per cent of the dead in the US.

Datasets released by the Union health ministry last month had shown similar patterns, with patients aged 30 to 60 accounting for 46 per cent of the Covid-19 deaths in India.

“What we see is worrying. This means the economic impact of Covid-19 is likely to be more severe in India than many other countries,” said Sanjay Mohanty, professor and population science researcher at the IIPS, a unit of the Union health ministry.

“People in the 30-to-65 age group make up the largest chunks of the workforce. Premature deaths in these age groups will have micro and macro impacts -– impacts on households as well as on the national productivity and economy.”

Mohanty and his colleagues analysed the age distribution among 7,701 Covid-19 patients, including 511 who had died. Their ages were available in an all-India database of nearly 63,000 confirmed cases and 2,100 deaths till May 10.

The researchers found that 4.62 per cent of the Covid-19 deaths were among patients in their 30s; another 13.55 per cent among patients in their 40s, and 24.55 per cent among those in their 50s. Patients aged 60 to 64 made up 15.21 per cent of the deaths.

One reason for India’s larger proportion of Covid-19 deaths in relatively younger patients is its demography – India has more of the young than many other countries, the researchers said.

For instance, 5 per cent of India’s population is 65 years or older, compared to 16 per cent in the US. This simply means a higher proportion of younger people are “available” in India to be infected.

But doctors and health researchers say that underlying health disorders such as diabetes and high blood pressure might also account for more premature deaths among patients in their 40s and 50s.

More people in their 40s and 50s have diabetes and hypertension in India than people in these age groups in the developed countries, Mohanty said.

“When such patients also get Covid-19, they’re more likely to develop severe disease.”

Anoop Misra, senior consultant endocrinologist and director of the Fortis National Centre for Diabetes Obesity and Cholesterol, pointed to another factor.

“Most older people in India remain in homes and not clustered in old-age homes as in the US, where infections spread rapidly,” Misra said.

“Younger people make up the workforce; they go out more often and are also likelier to shun masks.”

Health researchers say the economic impact of the deaths among the younger age groups could become a concern as the epidemic grows.

“For now, we have a relatively low case fatality rate and our numbers are relatively small compared with the US,” said William Joe, a health economist at the Institute of Economic Growth in New Delhi who was not associated with the IIPS study.

“But people in their 30s and 40s have skills and experience. If the epidemic continues to grow, the cumulative loss of people in this age group would impact national productivity,” Joe said.

India’s coronavirus epidemic remains on an exponential trajectory. The health ministry recorded 13,586 new Covid-19 cases on Friday, raising the total confirmed cases to 380,532, of whom 163,248 are under medical supervision, 204,711 have recovered, and 12,573 have died.