The Congress leadership has doubtless achieved a huge success in Telangana by pushing aside the resurgent BJP to become the main challenger to the incumbent K. Chandrashekhar Rao government, but the electoral arithmetic suggests an arduous last lap if it has to emerge victorious.
Though Rahul Gandhi has been constantly referring to the “punctured tyres” of the BJP that pushed it out of the race, and claiming with certainty that the Congress is going to kick out the “corrupt” KCR government as well, the Congress needs an exceptionally huge swing to derail the BRS juggernaut. In the 2018 Assembly elections, the Congress polled a mere 28.43 per cent vote against the BRS (then TRS), which bagged a whopping 46.87 per cent.
What’s significant is that KCR managed to improve his vote share despite facing anti-incumbency. In 2014, his party had polled only 34 per cent vote. The situations were similar. While the KCR government faced serious charges of corruption even in 2018, there was a perception that his welfare schemes benefited the poor. Development in Hyderabad and the alliance with AIMIM (the capital has 40 per cent Muslim vote) gave the ruling party an additional advantage and that dynamics remains the same even now.
The difference of 18.44 per cent votes between the BRS and the Congress means a huge gap. Inputs from the ground suggest the Congress has dramatically improved its position and the collapse of the BJP, which had emerged as the main challenger to the BRS in the Hyderabad municipal elections, further bolstered its chances. However. KCR’s clout largely remains intact. The Congress has a dynamic leader in Revanth Reddy and it has offered a robust welfare package but it has to be seen whether that can trigger a swing of around 10 per cent votes away from the BRS.
A senior leader told The Telegraph: “We are definitely very close but can’t be sure of an outright victory. That’s why Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge are making that last-ditch effort.”
Another leader said: “There is no doubt that KCR has enormous resources and will squander lots of money in the last two days. We can’t match them. Also, the BJP is helping them to stop the Congress from winning elections. We would have cruised easily had the Muslim votes not been controlled by Asaduddin Owaisi.”
While the Congress is widely believed to have done well in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, a victory in Telangana will signal its revival and establish its dominance in southern India. A victory in Telangana will compensate for the possible loss in Rajasthan, psyching up the Congress for the main battle in 2024. The BRS has not only acted as a hidden BJP ally, much like Naveen Patnaik’s BJD in Odisha, it is also willing to play the spoiler in the Opposition camp.
The Congress, which indeed has come very close, is sparing no pains to overcome the last-mile hurdles. While the BRS has matched its welfare agenda, the Congress’s hope rests on the public’s craving for change and anger against corruption. Rahul has gone so far as to brand KCR as the most corrupt chief minister, accusing him of snatching land from the poor and minting money from every government project. He has repeatedly said that the government looted Rs 1 lakh crore in the Kaleshwaram irrigation project.
The Congress description of Telangana battle as a choice between “Dorala Sarkar and Prajala Sarkar” (feudal government and people’s government) has struck a chord with the poor, powering its comeback in rural areas. Rahul and Priyanka have also exploited the emotional connect people there have with Indira Gandhi. Sonia Gandhi’s role in the creation of Telangana has also remained a dormant factor in the people’s minds. The thumping victory in the neighbouring Karnataka and the Bharat Jodo Yatra also boosted the party workers’ morale.
The party is aware of the shortfall and hence making desperate efforts to cover maximum ground before the campaign ends on November 28. Rahul addressed six public meetings in the last two days, with Kharge and Priyanka supplementing his efforts. The young Kanhaiya Kumar, who has emerged as a key campaigner apart from the top trio, has also been addressing meetings and news conferences. Leaders like Salman Khurshid were sent there to talk to Muslims.
While the Congress is mainly attacking the KCR family of dynastic control and corruption, the chief minister’s son K.T. Ramarao has hit back, wondering how a party in the control of Sonia-Rahul-Priyanka talks against family rule. He also rubbishes the charge of a hidden nexus with the BJP, publicly declaring that the BRS will never join them. Keeping a distance from the BJP is critical to their strategy of keeping the Muslim support intact. Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are extending a helping hand by attacking them viciously, to ensure that Muslims don’t drift towards the Congress.
