Two upcoming Assembly bypolls in Bihar are expected to be a litmus test for the parties against the backdrop of the changed equations after chief minister Nitish Kumar dumped the BJP and joined hands with the RJD-Congress-Left Grand Alliance.
Mokama and Gopalganj will vote on November 3 and the results will be announced on November 6. While Mokama is held by the RJD, Gopalganj has a BJP lawmaker. The bypolls are being seen as a bellwether of voting behaviour as the BJP readies for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Bihar, which the BJP governed in alliance with Nitish before the JDU leader switched sides, has 40 seats in the Lok Sabha.
The Grand Alliance claims to be numerically superior to the BJP when it comes to minority votes and the caste equations.
The Mokama seat fell vacant after muscle man-turned-politician Anant Singh, who had won on an RJD ticket, was stripped of the MLA’s post after being convicted in a case pertaining to the recovery of an AK-47 rifle, a hand grenade and ammunition from his house. He was sentenced to 10 years in prison.
Anant’s wife Neelam Devi is contesting the seat on an RJD ticket. Apart from the muscle of the Grand Alliance, she also has the backing of voters claiming allegiance to Nitish’s JDU.
The BJP, which has never won Mokama, has fielded Sonam Devi, the wife of gangster Nalini Ranjan Singh alias Lalan Singh.
The party is also banking on the support of another muscle man-turned-politician, former MP Surajbhan Singh of the Rashtriya Lok Janshakti Party. He hails from Mokama and had represented the seat before the rise of Anant in politics.
The by-election to the Gopalganj seat became necessary after the death of BJP MLA Subhash Singh earlier this year. The party has fielded his wife Kusum Devi, expecting to reap sympathy votes in her favour — a formidable factor when it comes to bypolls in the state.
“Gopalganj is our traditional borough. We have been winning it continuously since 2005. This time a sympathy wave is sweeping the constituency in favour of the late Subhash Singh’s wife Kusum Devi. We are going to win the seat,” senior BJP leader Samrat Choudhary, the leader of the Opposition in the Legislative Council, told The Telegraph.
The Congress contested the seat in 2020 as part of the Grand Alliance. The RJD has fielded a candidate this time — businessman Mohan Gupta — and is hoping to cut into a chunk of voters belonging to the Vaishya (business) community who have traditional voted the BJP and are present in sizeable numbers in the constituency.
The RJD is also banking on its own core voters — Yadavs and Muslims — as well as the extremely backwards castes and Kurmis who have traditionally supported the JDU.
Gopalganj is the native district of RJD chief Lalu Prasad and his wife Rabri Devi.
Lalu’s estranged brother-in-law Sadhu Yadav has fielded his wife Indira Yadav on a BSP ticket. She is expected to make a dent in the traditional Yadav votes siding with the RJD.
Sadhu is considered a force to reckon with in the district. He had represented Gopalganj as an MLA in 2000 and as an MP in 2004 on RJD tickets. He contested the seat in the 2020 Assembly election for the BSP and came second with around 41,000 votes. Subhash won, polling around 78,000 votes, while the Congress’s Asif Ghafoor got 36,500 votes.
“His (Sadhu’s) wife will definitely cut into some of our traditional votes,” a senior RJD leader told this newspaper.
However, the RJD leader added that the situation might change if leaders like Nitish, Lalu and Rabri campaign in Gopalganj.
The BJP is hoping for a morale-booster after Nitish ditched the party. Senior BJP leaders are of the opinion that retaining Gopalganj would be an acceptable result.
