A blazing hot March has followed a record-breakingly hot February and the hotter-than-usual spells are expected to continue through the summer with temperatures 2-3C above normal. And there’s more bad news: spells of pre-monsoon rain that are forecast could damage crops just when they’re ready to be harvested.

The India Meteorological Department has put close to 95 per cent of the country under alerts for some form of bad weather from thunderstorms to hail over the next few days. Also, short spells of rain that have already hit Gujarat and Rajasthan could impact crops which are being harvested slightly later in the season. The rain is expected to hit Madhya Pradesh, parts of Maharashtra and possibly Telangana.

“I think it will affect crops also because there will be some hailstorms,” says G.P. Sharma, president Skymet. Air Vice Marshal (Retd) Sharma is a former chief of the air force weather forecasting department. “It started with very light rainfall,” adds Sharma.

However, the rain may be welcome because February and March till now have been unusually dry. Says Sharma: “February was the hottest and driest in many, many decades. The first two weeks of March were also hot and in the first week we had a pan-India rainfall deficiency of almost 68 per cent. In the second week it was 85 per cent pan-India.”

He adds that there has been almost no spring season. “We transitioned from winter to summer. We straightaway changed from woollens to half-sleeves.” Besides that, he says, there has been unusual weather conditions for that time of year in early March over the Bay of Bengal.

The summer months of April and May are also likely to be exceptionally hot, says Sharma. “There will be frequent and prolonged heat waves with temperatures in excess of 40C in many parts of the country,” he warns. However, the consolation is that the widespread rain forecast for many parts of the country could bring down temperatures, at least in the next two weeks. “I don’t see the March heat coming back in the second half of the month,” says Sharma.

The plus point of having showers now is that it could help subsoil conditions. “That could be the solace we have with this spell which is here now,” adds Sharma.

El Nino conditions have been predicted by scientists both in 2023 and 2024 and that could mean lower levels of rainfall even during the monsoons.

Heading south, there could be rainfall and hailstorms in Telangana as well. Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka don’t usually have hail.